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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (51730)	3/5/2008 8:44:06 AM
From: Suma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541851

Do you think that the influence by these talk show hosts is what put Hillary over the edge. I do... but then I may be naive about this..

To: Dale Baker who wrote (51730)	3/5/2008 9:39:36 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 541851

The crossover vote in TX and OH was less important than other big groups, but the talk jocks are closer to their dream of having Hillary to run against. I hate to say it, but the talk show morons might have had an impact. If you look at the exit polling in both Ohio and Texas, self-identified Republicans were about 9% in both primaries. Republicans Obama Clinton Ohio 9% 49% 49% Texas 9% 52% 47% I couldnt find much data from earlier primaries that split out the Republicans because they usually made up too small a portion of the polling. However, the two states I did find were Wisconsin and Missouri (I looked through almost all of the primary states). Republicans Obama Clinton Missouri 6% 75% 21% Wisconsin 9% 72% 28% If Texas Republicans had split 75% towards Obama, it would have resulted in almost a 4 point swing in the overall numbers....enough to have given him the win. Slacker

To: Dale Baker who wrote (51730)	3/5/2008 10:09:21 AM
From: JohnM	Respond to of 541851

But that's how the votes came in. Nice table. As for the crossover votes, the Republicans who voted for Hillary, the better to weaken the Dems, I tend to discount that effect. Some but not many. However, I heard that there many have been more than a few. Several commentators last night. I assume one could know, perhaps from exit polls, what proportions of the vote were Reps. Motivation would have to be assumed. But if much of that crossover vote went to Clinton, the motivational guess might not be much of a stretch.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (51730)	3/5/2008 10:23:07 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 541851

<<<I doubt we get a resolution of this contest for months now, which will just be time spent with the top two Democrats going after each other and weakening their stature for the fall campaign, unfortunately.>>> If you really, really believe in the Obama message, this is not going to hurt. Obama needs to be tested before he gets into the oval office. Nothing is going to stop him from getting there, if not now then in 2016 or even 2024. If you think that his message will go away if he does not get elect right away after a year in the state senate and a year in the Senate, then I think you are talking about "a fairy tale".