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Politics : The Next President 2008 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RMF who wrote (2387)	3/10/2008 12:01:08 AM
From: Hope Praytochange	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3215

Mrs. Clinton’s victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island on March 4 kept her candidacy alive. Yet like Mr. Obama’s weekend caucus win in Wyoming, her victories did not break the pattern of the race (neither would an Obama victory Tuesday in Mississippi’s primary, where he leads in the polls). His amalgam of young voters, African-Americans and upscale liberals has carried more places and accumulated a few more delegates; her coalition of women, working-class whites and Hispanics has taken the biggest states. The threat of gridlock has touched off talk of holding new contests in Michigan and Florida, which were stripped of delegates because they held their primaries in January, earlier than party rules allow. Debates over the form new contests would take, and how to pay for them, are riven by conflicting agendas: Mrs. Clinton’s need for more big-state wins versus Mr. Obama’s need to preserve his delegate lead; his preference for caucuses versus hers for primaries. “This is the most fluid situation I’ve ever been in,” said Debbie Dingell, a Democratic National Committee member from Michigan. Yet there’s no assurance that “do-overs” would deliver a breakout for either candidate. For party leaders, the most worrisome variable is the tone of the campaign. Mrs. Clinton won last week after escalating her attacks on Mr. Obama’s authenticity, experience and ties to a scandal-tarred donor. In defeat, Mr. Obama responded by questioning Mrs. Clinton’s ethics. When she and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, floated the possibility of a “dream ticket,” Obama advisers dismissed it as a political tactic. “Given the current trajectory” of the race, said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, “I worry about it spiraling out of control.” The combination of discord and procedural mishaps represents a gift to Republicans, now pulling together behind Senator John McCain, their presumed nominee. “The whole process is one that will raise questions about Democratic competence,” says Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chairman of the House Republicans’ campaign arm. “If you cannot run your nominating process better than this, how can you govern America?” 60 Days More? A prolonged fight poses special risks to the party’s drive to build a working majority in the Senate. Frenetic fund-raising by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, which collected $90 million in February alone, diminishes the pool of cash available to Senate candidates. A bitter end to the nomination fight could strain party unity in states like New Hampshire, Minnesota and New Mexico, which, like Colorado, offer prime opportunities for Democratic gains. Disaffection among African-Americans could threaten the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for re-election, Senator Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana. It is not clear the race has become a Democratic liability — yet. Continued competition can engage new voters, toughen the eventual nominee and keep Mr. McCain off the front pages. But party leaders do not want the fight to drag on to the late-summer convention in Denver. Mr. Udall said he opposed second-chance “mulligans” for Michigan and Florida. But he said he favored one last contest after the primaries end in early June — a “national caucus” in the form of swift decisions by superdelegates who remain uncommitted. Mr. Udall is one of them. “Another 60 days probably doesn’t hurt us,” he said. “At that point, we’ve got to decide on a nominee.”