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To: AllansAlias who wrote (164183)	3/10/2008 12:55:14 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

AA..Agree new SPX low would open the door to an impulsive move down...which would presage more down ahead... That large ABC count has long been noted on the thread as a possible count...FWIW the problem I've had with is that it would imply..1).. that the 2000-2002 decline was an impulsive 5-waver , and 2)..that the 2002-2007 advance has been a corrective 3-waver..I find it difficult to see either one in the wave structure.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (164183)	3/10/2008 1:12:54 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

One way or another, I think we're on the same page here: high likelihood of a multi-year secular downwave. I will be astonished if it unfolds as an impulse as you are suggesting. Seems like all the long timeframe downward moves play out as sequences of threes interrupted by corrective waves, eg abc-x-abc-x-abc. Bulls and bears too quick to sell, and countercyclical monetary and fiscal intervention too quick to arrive. (vs. no countercyclical action ever taken during bulls) `BC

To: AllansAlias who wrote (164183)	3/11/2008 8:54:28 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

On weekly/daily, COMPX/NDX look like they are well in their 5th waves since October - by far the steepest and most substantial decline since 2002. For COMPX the next really substantial S/R area is a little above 2000 - near the lows of the Summer of 2006. I think the market most likely will start a rally somewhere between here and there. If the Oct decline is "fresh" - as opposed to being a "C" - your big scenario becomes realistic. We'll have the answer if we'll see new lows this summer, after a "proper" rally.