To: Katelew who wrote (52818 ) 3/10/2008 4:25:30 PM From: cnyndwllr Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 543213 Kate, re: "Ed, were you as astonished as I was by McCain's recent ad....the Churchill thing? The tone-deafness of it was breathtaking considering the public poll support for getting out of Iraq as quickly as possible. " McCain is tone deaf but his ad may be heading in the only direction he can take to win the election. At one time a huge majority of Americans were in favor of the war in Iraq. I think we should remember that many of those former avid war hawks turned against it not because they saw the flaws in the big picture theme of preemptive strikes and wars that can't be won because they're really wars against big ideas that you can't kill with bullets, but rather they turned against it because they came to realize that it was a losing war and that the human and economic costs were huge. Those voters are fertile ground for McCain's message of...can I say this...HOPE. McCain gives them hope that the human costs going forward will be lower and lower, that the war can be won (We're number 1! We're number 1!), that we'll be safer at home and that they were right in their initial support for the war. He'll run on the theme that the policy that took us to Iraq was correct but that the war was bungled by incompetents and he'll point out, again, that he had the "right idea" when he called for Rumsfeld's dismissal and for an increase in troops. He'll parade a lot of guys with crewcuts in uniforms to tell us how this war can and should be won and he'll play on the nation's fears by warning again and again of our dire future if we "surrender to the terrorists." If he runs against Hillary he'll argue that she only turned against the war when the war became unpopular and that deep down she knows he's right. (An argument that, unfortunately, has a lot of support in view of her votes and speeches.) If he runs against Obama he'll maintain that he's naive and gullible and that his lack of military expertise is a disaster waiting to happen. All he has to do is to create a question with respect to whether he's right or not. Once he's done that then the voters will not vote on the question of Iraq or foreign policy but rather a whole host of other questions like taxes, character, party affiliation, likeability, social issues, experience, charisma and ... McCain wins on many of those typical issues, especially against Hillary. So I think he runs on "hope" that the Iraqi and Afghan wars can be relatively painless and can be won, and "change" with respect to the competence and effectiveness of the tactics that we use to conduct our aggressive, militarily grounded foreign policy. Regrettably, I think McCain in his dim but trustworthy way is hitting the right conservative, general election note with respect to Iraq and the election. Ed