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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (31098)	3/16/2008 10:31:25 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217545

Thanks, Jay, have a good trip. Before I go, a good cartoon from CR's blog: washingtonpost.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (31098)	3/16/2008 10:34:51 PM
From: Rolla Coasta	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 217545

MOTHER of all DEFLATION is coming The house of Morgan has spoken. Wow! This BSC deal was a game changer - Deflation coming!!! Time to unload gold, oil, euro funny money, and get back into dollars, cash, and short stocks, SDS and SH ETFs.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (31098)	3/16/2008 10:56:11 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217545

It appears that Bear Stearns is now less than 2% of the IYF Dow Jones IYF index, which the SKF is based on. So the Bear Stearns component has done it job. Here's what SKF is betting against now - Top Holdings (Daily) as of 3/14/2008 View All Holdings 7.36% BANK OF AMERICA CORP 5.67% JPMORGAN CHASE&CO 4.68% CITIGROUP INC 4.21% AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP 4.17% WELLS FARGO& COMPANY 2.59% GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 2.50% US BANCORP 2.41% WACHOVIA CORP 2.24% BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP 1.95% AMERICAN EXPRESS CO Holdings are subject to change. So who are the most vulnerable ? Citicorp obviously. Unfortunately Both Bank of America and Wells Fargo have been prudent enough to avoid excess involvement, B of A actually picking up the spoils from Country Wide. I don't know enough about American International Group, but their price was knocked down a while ago over the Hank Greenberg situation. Goldmans Sachs will get to be one of the survivors/looters etc, along with JPM. I don't know enough to comment on the rest. Lehman is less than 2% of SKF also. bigcharts.marketwatch.com Here is one decade of IYF. Note possible support around 60. I expect we will go about 10-20% under 60, and then recover. Looking at long term charts for BAC, JPM, and C (Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Citibank). Citibank is only about twice as high as it early 1990s low, while the better run B of A and JPM are about 4 times as high. So I think we are more than 2/3 of the way done with SKF, absent total price collapse.