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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChanceIs who wrote (98400)	3/28/2008 10:28:07 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206223

>> 5) Mexican production is down. << From your own post: Natural gas production, meanwhile, was a record 6.537 billion cubic feet a day in the two-month period, up 13.2% from the first two months of 2007. Pemex said it obtained greater gas output from offshore oil fields, and increased production from the Lankahuasa, Burgos and Veracruz gas projects. Message 24438465

To: ChanceIs who wrote (98400)	3/28/2008 10:44:06 AM
From: Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206223

To me the real issue is increasing global demand for NG and the reality that the U.S. is at the end of the line and truly the market of last resort. Liquefaction plants are simply not being built at the envisioned pace and after the current wave the cupboard is pretty thin. Meanwhile, Europe and other regions are building NG generation hand over fist-- 130 GW in Europe alone-- more than our nuclear fleet. Russia, ME and even Nigeria face internal demand pressures and rising costs. Qatar has reduced its liquefaction goals and China is making LT deals with Australia. In the middle of all this the CEC still projects $4.75 LNG in their energy model. That is the most amazing thing of all -- CA is the most distant market from just about every planned liquefaction facility and yet they keep building NG generation. -- Frank

To: ChanceIs who wrote (98400)	3/28/2008 10:56:32 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Respond to of 206223

Chancels, let me take a quick shot at your points then I've got to run - more later. 1) World demand is rising - especially with NG fired generation - this applies to all commodities for the entire history of civilized man, what's new here? Production is rising in lockstep. 2) LNG shipments to the US are dropping - remains to be seen, so far it has been rising. Spot argument may not work out if prices stay high, and most shipments are likely term rather than spot contracts. 3) Euro (North Sea) production is way down - For UK that is true, for Norway not so sure - may be rising as far as gas goes. 4) Canadian production is way down - some depletion, some drilling focus from gas to oil, and some gas consumption for the sandbox - lots of reserves and lots of idle rigs, easy fix. 5) Mexican production is down - Mexico is a net importer of US gas, small volumes so more or less irrelevant