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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (114816)	4/4/2008 1:21:18 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

And missed that key bit about GS LEH MS MER borrowing from the discount window at 0%. Funny how giving the criminals access to leverage again even for a few weeks gooses the market. -- Until then, they were getting hit with margin calls. The Fed eliminated that problem. I heard another clown today or yesterday praising the Fed for their great work. His reason? "Look how the great the markets have done in response." It's another case of not fighting the Fed.

To: Perspective who wrote (114816)	4/4/2008 1:23:14 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 306849

I have just been looking at current money supply figures (MZM and M2) and find that the annualized rate of increase right now is comparable to what occurred when Lincoln authorized the Greenback issue in the midst of the Civil War. This resulted in tripling the money supply and doubling the general price level in the North. (The Confederacy went Zimbabweian, of course.) This reckless inflation of the money supply just barely keeps the equity markets at these elevated levels. Any hint of restraint removes that support. The Fed and everyone else is thinking in terms of the 1930s. This is a a profoundly flawed view of things. (In the 1930s, they were thinking in the profoundly flawed terms of the Civil War). It will not do to refight the economic battles of eighty years earlier.

To: Perspective who wrote (114816)	4/4/2008 1:31:48 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

The similarity with the 1968-81 bear market and 2000+ would not work without a major rise in interest rates IMHO. Whether what we just experienced is a modified version of the 1973-74 crash remains to be seen. Personally I doubt we get the crash everyone expects without a major rise in long term rates. Perhaps the real crash happens after the real estate downturn ends, inflationary pressures really kick in and the fed is forced to create a recession to curb inflation as it did that last period? finance.yahoo.com