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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JimisJim who wrote (9154)	4/11/2008 8:29:13 PM
From: bullbud	Respond to of 50751

Yup, that's like asking the Fox how things are in the chicken coop.

To: JimisJim who wrote (9154)	4/11/2008 10:00:00 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 50751

Wow Jim that is an impressive post. Here's one more thing to consider, for those who don't believe in peak oil. I previously mentioned Exxon's net profit margin in 2007 was 10%, which is good by the standards of most businesses, but it's less impressive when you consider that oil averaged about $80/barrel in 2007. So if the price of oil fell to $70/barrel, Exxon would be losing money! Let's look at their income statement: smartmoney.com Q4 2006 Cost of revenues: $50 billion Net income: $10 billion Q4 2007 Cost of revenues: $69 billion Net income: $11 billion They have to spend a lot more than they did just a year ago to make the same amount of money. -Fun-da-Mental

To: JimisJim who wrote (9154)	4/12/2008 12:09:01 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 50751

Incredible posting // you forgot this tidbit April 8 - Bloomberg (Tian Ying): "China's March passenger car sales rose 24%, the fastest pace in seven months... Chinese drivers bought 700,500 cars last month... First-quarter sales climbed 20 percent to 1.85 million."

To: JimisJim who wrote (9154)	4/12/2008 9:36:35 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50751

Good post. The other factor you left out is that recoverable reserves (PDP and PUD) are a function of price. The higher the price, the more reserves you get to book at year end because you are not allowed to count reserves if the cost of production exceeds the current price of oil or NG. Since Exxon's additional discoveries only replaced production in the last year, what that really means is if the price of oil had not increased Exxon would not have even discovered enough new reserves to even replace their production much less to cover any increase in demand. If you analysis the makeup of additional reserves you will discover that in many cases the increase over the last year came from “revisions” to existing reserves and not from "new discoveries” or from the increase in the price of oil and NG. In addition in past economic recessions the demand for oil has never decreased. Only the rate of increase in the demand for oil has declined and in some cases it has declined down close to zero growth. So what happens when to the economy when the supply of oil is less than the demand for oil and world production begins to decline regardless of price??? It will happen and most likely it will happen in your lifetime. Do you think the new middle class in China and India are going to go back to riding bicycles? Reserves are overstated in the Middle East mostly because OPEC's production quotas were based on a percentage of what each country stated was their maximum production capability. So every country had a huge incentive to over state their production and reserves back when there was a surplus of oil. Jim