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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (58812)	4/19/2008 8:02:34 PM
From: loantech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78405

I can no longer bet that USA will NOT out do WGI by being the 1st to move up 50% as USA has already gone down enough that 50% get us only to the starting gate. So USA will no doubt win the next race in the medley. Rough numbers if USA get up to 1500 tons per day capacity. < The intention is to ultimately get production from the Galena mine up to 1100 tons per day as that is the capacity at the Galena mill. This level of production is forecast to be achieved sometime in 2008 after the Galena shaft has been rehabilitated.> <The Coeur mine produced continuously from 1969-1991. The total production was 39 million ounces of silver and 33 million pounds of copper from 2.4 million tons of ore. Average ore grades were 16.6 ounces per ton silver and 0.72% copper. The mill will be running a full capacity of 400 T/day in the 1st Q 2008.> Grades: <The average grade of the silver-copper ore was 22.9 ounces per ton silver and 0.83% copper. Average grade of the silver-lead ore was 8.2 ounces silver and 8.8% lead per ton of ore.> <Average ore grades were 16.6 ounces per ton silver and 0.72% copper.> This gets confusing but this helps here: <The company decided in early 2007 to reactivate the Coeur Mill to process lead-silver ore from the Galena Mine> The Coeur mill will process the ore from the Galena mine. 400 t/d and 8.2 ounces silver and 8.8% lead.So using rough calculations of AG and PB and today's prices that 8.8% PB is equiv to 14 ounces of silver so total AG equivalent milled at the Couer will be 22 ounces per ton. 22 X 400 X 360 X 85% recovery = 2.69 million ounces AG equiv. Galena mill 22.9 ounces of AG plus .83% CU = 26+ ounces of AG equiv. 26 X 1100 X 360 X 85% recovery = 8.7 mill ounces AG equiv. These numbers jive with the research capital numbers that were used at 950 tons per day and proposed production of 3.9 million ounces of silver and 2 million lbs of copper and 19.9 million lbs of lead. Equivalent to about 5.7 million AG ounces. <The Company produced 302,188 ounces of silver during the 2nd Quarter of 2007 at an average cash cost of U.S. $10.63 per ounce. This compared with 200,044 ounces in the 4th Qrt, 2006 at cash costs of U.S. $13 per ounce. By way of further comparison, the company produced 149,646 ounces of silver during the 3rd Qrt 2006 at a cash cost of over U.S. $19 per oz. The headgrades averaged 17.0 oz./sdt up from 12.7 oz./sdt during the 3rd Qrt 2006. The company expects the headgrade to continue to improve through 2007> Consider this and rumor has it that this zone may be running quite a ways: <TORONTO, ONTARIO - March 11, 2008 - U.S. Silver Corporation (TSXV:USA) - is pleased to announce results from the recently completed exploration drift mining on the 3400 level at the Galena mine near Wallace, Idaho. The actual mined grades in the drift were 51.66 ounces per ton (opt) silver and 2.77% copper with an average width of 7.1 feet over a strike length of 66 feet. > Assuming that costs are brought down to 7 bucks per ounce and I think they will: Numbers from the most recent analyst report here: us-silver.com <Cash Operating Costs Per Ounce Ag $11.70 $7.10 $7.00 $6.90 $6.70 $6.90> So when fully up to speed about 9 mill ounces of AG equivalent. Sales price of 18 bucks per ounce minus a cost of 7 bucks per ounce = 99 million cash flow. 250 million fully diluted. CFPS about 39 cents. A decent multiple is 10 for this size a mine. Puts the share price at 3.90. All numbers are rough and from an untrained hand but what the heck I think it is good enough arithmetic for me to hold USA for another year or two. If it happens that is a 6 bagger from here. I don't need to speculate in Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela,etc when I have a mine with this potenatial right next door. If my numbers are hay wire I still see a 3 bagger. The tunnel needs repairing, the labor needs to be hired, prices need to hold up and they need to improve on their resource. I think this old table shows about 51 million ounces or so in all categories NOT including inferred AG equiv.But results they are hitting makes me think this number will improve enough for USA to get a 10-15 multiple in a year when the mine is running full bore. us-silver.com Maybe at some point a certain NLW will even write it up. Home based may not be all that bad in the long haul.