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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (78236)	4/23/2008 1:14:49 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Yes and a key reason for this consumer pullback is a surge in the price of many necessities. Meat prices have not gone up much YET since cattlemen are reducing their herds because of soaring of feed costs. But once this process ends meat prices should explode on the upside -- probably later this year.

To: mishedlo who wrote (78236)	4/23/2008 1:20:51 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 116555

What if we're only in the eye of the housing hurricane In the Eye of the Housing Hurricane By MIKE MORGAN online.barrons.com HERE'S A LESSON MANY FLORIDIANS HAVE LEARNED THE HARD WAY: All hurricanes have three parts -- the front half, the eye and the back half. The eye is a deceiving quiet period at the center of the hurricane. The eye lulls you into believing the storm has passed and all is well. In fact, the back half of a hurricane can be far more devastating than the front half. The front half of a hurricane does a lot of damage and weakens many structures. Then, when the back half hits, houses, buildings and personal property teetering on the brink of failure are utterly destroyed. Moreover, since the wind is coming from the opposite direction, anything strong enough to resist the first half is tested again by the back half. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT'S HAPPENING IN FLORIDA'S housing and financial markets. We are in the eye of the hurricane, and the back half will hit us twice as hard as the front. more

To: mishedlo who wrote (78236)	4/23/2008 2:42:28 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish, Thoughts on this Ruff Market Timer and his predicition of 400% inflation? Gold and Dollar tank should make this call......for if we see this kind of inflation it should be seen in silver first, then gold. Silver compared to the USB price has been a real good indicator. No doubt we have seen some nasty inflation via reflation efforts of the FED.........off the 2002 lows. This could come to roost between 2010 and 2012, if FED is that stupid, are they? This kind of inflation would be worse then a housing bust. 400% or $4000 gold........time shall tell, do as the chart tells one to do. Only problem is, long gold and FED raises rates, what will be the one day price drop? Thanks, West

To: mishedlo who wrote (78236)	4/23/2008 2:59:45 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Respond to of 116555

Deflationist GE <g> April 23 , 2008 Immelt: GE to cut another $1 billion in costs By STEPHEN SINGER updated 2 hours, 33 minutes agoFont size: ERIE, Pa. - General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt said the U.S. economy is the worst its been since the burst of the dot-com bubble and that housing hasn't been in such dire straits since the Great Depression. Less that two weeks after the conglomerate shocked investors with a profit warning and revealed that its first-quarter earnings had unexpectedly fallen 6 percent, Jeff Immelt said things could get worse for the U.S. economy. Immelt told shareholders at the company's annual meeting that because of current conditions, GE will increase its planned cost cutting from $2 billion to $3 billion. "We are in the toughest economy since 2001 and the worst housing crisis since the Depression," Immelt said. "Banks have written off more than $250 billion. ... Days of easy credit have turned into months of no credit at all. While I am confident about the economy long term, we could see even more difficult times ahead." GE's first-quarter earnings report triggered a plunge that wiped more than $46 billion from its market capitalization and saw the company's stock fall nearly 13 percent. Many investors felt broadsided because GE said as recently as March that the company would see profit and revenue growth of 10 percent in 2008. The company now projects earnings to be 5 percent or less. Immelt said GE executives are making changes in the company's operations and planning, including more internal forecasts, with Immelt reviewing the reports weekly. "This will ensure that there are no time gaps between how we describe the company and what we deliver," he said. Immelt said at the time that GE's performance deteriorated rapidly toward the end of the quarter because capital markets had frozen, but he said Wednesday that the situation has improved. He said financial service earnings may decline between 5 percent and 10 percent in 2008, but said that exceeds the performance of peers. Immelt defended the company's performance and brushed aside the mention of selling off businesses. "In the last five or six years I've sold $50 or $60 billion of business," he told reporters. "I've acquired $70 or $80 billion of business. This has probably been the most active portfolio change in the history of the company and it would be hard to find another industrial company that's done anything close to what we've done." Under Immelt, GE sold off the company's plastics and insurance businesses and has been increasing its market share in emerging markets, such as Asia and Latin America. Immelt said he accepts criticism from analysts who said the quarterly results damaged his credibility. Until the earnings report, GE regularly met its targets. "My track record over a long period in this company has been good," he said. "I expect it to be good in the future. You don't do a job like this if you can't take a punch." Fairfield, Conn.-based GE is having its annual shareholders meeting in Erie, the site of its transportation business headquarters. Shares rose 22 cents to $32.55 Wednesday. On the Web: ge.com cnbc.com