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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (93790)	4/23/2008 8:56:17 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 110194

>>>Is this all about Malthusian shortages? Not especially is my general conclusion.<<< One division of the U. S. government that can still be believed is the U. S. Department of Agriculture. The reports that they put together have been showing declining stocks of grains for the past year to the lowest in about sixty years. Yet the world population is much higher than it was sixty years ago. Also, the Chinese are eating more meat than ever, and raising livestock uses up grain. So far Jim Rogers has been proved to be exactly right in his views about commodities. Don Coxe is also mostly right. For a lot of informed discussion about all this, see the farming thread: Subject 24638 Disclosure: I am long DBA, MOO, COW, an Australian beef company, etc. I missed out on the fertilizer boom except to the extent that MOO includes fertilizer companies. Right now, COW (live cattle and pork) seems a very interesting speculation because herds are being thinned out and reduced as a result of high feed prices. This has driven down meat prices temporarily. To refuse to recognize a developing world food shortage is a lot more serious than the refusal to recognize the forces that have raised crude oil prices from $10 to nearly $120 in an incredibly short time. Anyone who predicted $100 crude oil five years ago was considered insane by most people.