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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (2861)	4/24/2008 2:18:20 PM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26251

I have a weird feeling that MSFT may miss today. Obviously their growth is slowing dramaticly and their questand desire to pay for aquistions to acheive higher growth is a problem in my book.

To: Rarebird who wrote (2861)	4/24/2008 5:10:35 PM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26251

Today had the bad smell of a classic bull trap...which it was indeed with bad MSFT earnings, and a false breakout. Today was a day where years of mkt. experience aided with this interpretation. I continue to beleive we will re-test the lows, and probably break lower. Any decent correction usually traps some bulls and makes the bears cover up a bit. I alos beleive our economy is about to have a "technical recession".

To: Rarebird who wrote (2861)	4/25/2008 8:05:03 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26251

Well, in some sense that's exactly what the market has baked in right now, so it seems it should not be either bullish or bearish. The expectations shifted to Euro cuts due to German/French slowdown, which rallied the USD/EUR and the dollar. If these expectations are false, and Trichet continues to be hawkish, no mas to the dollar rally, IMHO, it's just another oversold bounce on the way lower. Note that 225 bp. extra cuts contributed to a drop of USDX from 76 to 73 now. The expectations of global recession and FCBs multiple cuts to follow the Fed are fully priced in... If they don't, then the dollar will have a cow. quotes.ino.com Eur/USD rests more on what the ECB will do now than on the Fed. Note that some degree of FOREX intervention is also happening, since the G7 clearly stated just that. This might put a bottom, but the bottom is unlikely, unless the ECB abandons its hawkish stance.