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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry S. who wrote (6604)	4/26/2008 4:45:47 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 71456

>>> A lot of it seems to me to be wishful thinking<<< A very gentle assessment. But even if it were true, the only thing that can lift a weak fiat currency is higher interest rates. And that means death to long bonds as well as equities. At what age does a person's economic innocence end? I would say that it ends just at the point where economic senility begins. Anyhow: Good times in the old USA began about 1983, let's say, 25 years ago. Most of us have only the dimmest awareness of our economic context until we are at least 25 years old. So to almost everyone 50 years or younger, things that went on prior to 1983 are past, forgotten, and misunderstood. The idea that it is possible for a 30-year-treasury bond to lose 40% or more of its value, or the idea that the general equities markets might drop 50% or even 75%, --these are ideas that cannot be entertained. To me, the logic is simple and inescapable: 1. Interest rates will have to go up, whether it's the choice of the Fed or not. 2. Long bonds and stocks will have to go down, no matter what anyone says or does. OR, 3. we get inflation in this country not seen since the darkest days of the Civil War. OR, all three.

To: Larry S. who wrote (6604)	4/26/2008 5:19:50 PM
From: ggersh	Respond to of 71456

The following article on the dollar is from this week's Barron's. It provides a different view from most those offered on this thread. A lot of it seems to me to be wishful thinking but WDIK. Larry I agree with your summary "Wishful Thinking" and like you BWDIK