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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (69097)	5/2/2008 7:03:43 PM
From: blazenzim	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Tax rebate is $1200 for a married couple plus another $300 per kid. My cousin has 3 kids and a husband so they will get $2100. She doesn't work and he lays tile. He does pretty good but they spend everything he makes. They have a boat, atv, guns, toys for the kids, go on vacations, and generally live it up. I can guarantee you that they will spend their entire rebate of $2100 within the first month of receiving it. This is a very typical middle class family of 5 with a minivan. Of $130 billion being distributed, I would guess that $110 billion is immediately spent. Slap a 3x multiplier on that and you have $330 billion worth of GDP added over 4 months. That's a good 5% bump for that period. Of course the shot of heroin will wear off over time but this will probably be enough to avoid negative gdp for the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Since an official recession is 2 consecutive quarters, Bush will be able to skip out of town without an official recession on his watch.