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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Galirayo who wrote (6513)	5/9/2008 9:22:35 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41411

Hi Galirayo, Thanks for pointing out the reweighting of the $WTIC. Light sweet crude is much easier to refine, lower costs higher yields etc. I need to get some more info on the reweighting... what have you got on that. Great charts... The darned $USD index already looks like it's finished it's little A-B-C type upward correction and is getting ready to head back down. I'm going to rework numbers on some of the currency and currency crosses (cross rates.. pairs). The Gold chart kind of looks like a descending wedge and a week ago I thought the action off the high last month looked corrective in nature, keeping the bull market intact. The $USD and Crude go back and forth between various states of market correllation and then periods of just about no correlation.... And periods of medium correlation. I have seen bit more seasonality correlation at times, but that is governed by the large Global Macro Economic Flow of Funds. John

To: Galirayo who wrote (6513)	11/9/2008 11:03:26 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41411

Hi G, yes it appears that near term top in crude back in May July was a little bit more than a near term top..... This has been one of those years that drives hordes or Finacial Analysts; brokers and traders off to the old timers convalescent homes. You hear stories about how people entered the stock broker/ money management field after complete wash out periods like this and they don't understand why so many of these guys / and women have all this white hair and 15 years of ageing encapsulated in their faces from having to live through and answer up to investors/clients .... family; friends about wealth destruction such as we have experienced the past 2 years. They talk about this liquidation markets first wiping out the bears... then wiping out the bulls and then taking any other still sombulent investor down for good measure..... thats what this period sure feels like. (oh yes read the post that I made that you responded to.... )back in glory days when we had liquidity and 130+ crude. I'm in Houston and we may as well have been rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic as to debating whether 130, 134 or 140 something was going to be a turn in crude..... The take no prisoners decline in Crude has been amazing and beyond anything I expected for this year. Just shows how deleveraging of credit crushes prices of everything. John