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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (9399)	5/11/2008 5:30:57 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi Falcon, I really like this count. And it makes sense because, I don't think we've seen long term tops in the commodity complex. The Global Central Bank will keep enough liquidity and create more to ""grow" or rather inflate our way out of the debt pyramid. It would be a fairly classic Elliott Wave development for the upcoming 4th Wave to be an a - b - c -d - e contracting symmetrical triangle. That would also provide the pricing venue for both bulls and bears to advocate their perspective on crude. Thanks for posting. John

To: nspolar who wrote (9399)	7/20/2008 5:10:14 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 33421

I have looked at the wave analysis of crude many times since agreeing with and predicting a third wave top; #msg-24578122. I still have this top (not yet confirmed but close) as a 3rd wave top, but I have the details in between a bit different. These details have significance as to how the 4th wave correction goes, as well as the 5th wave. My current favored wave count is: - a 1 up topping near end of '00. - the following move clear out to early '07 was all part of a corrective 2. A long correction as it should have been, and a running type correction. This correction in itself was positive and uptrending, forecasting a very powerful 3rd wave up. - the 3rd wave followed the 2, a powerful push up. This wave count indicates to me the most likely bottom area for the ensuing retrenchment is between 90 and 100 dollars. The previous count would likely infer a deeper retrenchment, and I don't think that is going to happen. This count would also likely infer a correction in crude lasting a good 3 plus years or so, or a bit over half the time of the entire 2nd wave correction. This I believe will keep crude within a sweet pot area for the US economy. The 4th wave B top could in fact trigger the next major correction in the DOW (if the DOW is still in an uptrend). This B top would be expected to occur well above 100 dollars and maybe nearer 140. The economy seemed to take 100 dollar oil okay, but not 140. The 5th wave of this series in crude is yet to occur, and would likely extend (into an ED maybe?). A reasonable top projection would be in the 220 area, post 2012. img258.imageshack.us This is the first post in a series of posts. These series explain my thoughts of 'The Ultimate Storm, Within The Confines Of A Unified Wave Approach'. We have had the The Perfect Storm by Puplava. We recently had The Centipede Market by John. Now 'The Ultimate Storm'. I have pondered endless hours as to how this market will proceed, for months and months now. My main interest is in the LT (next 20 years maybe for me). I have read endless articles by the doomsayers for years now, all predicting near instant doom, death to the dollar, and near instant gold to 2000 or whatever. These are accompanied by near endless views of the next general market correction always being The Big One. I could go on and on. It is possible that there are way too many opinions of this variety, and that alone will likely make it not happen as proposed. The next wave always being The Big One, is rather interesting in itself, especially here and now. It biggest proponents are often the wave theorists themselves, in particular The Elliott purists. Right now I am pretty certain however that w/r to the big wave guns, that do this for major money, there is little disagreement .... i.e. The Big One is happening. That alone is a reason to put up a '?'. All of most of the wave theorists have the last upwave as a Big B. Maybe so, but the Big B in The Dow and a whole lot of other indices went farther than is typical of a Big B. In particular in a lot of other indices. This market it not going to make everyone happy all of the time, probably more of the opposite. Yet on the other hand I think many views professed have some merit, and it is all a matter of 'When'. So I have been looking around a lot, and thinking about a scenario wherein everyone will eventually be correct, just not when they expect. I also believe a lot of issues are related by some sort of 'fuzzy' logic, that is near impossible to grasp. Right now I consider Oil, The Dow, The NDX, Precious Metals (including metals and gold), and to a lesser extent Financials to have important patterns to watch. Hence I am going to post on each segment with a wrap up. Oil is quite important here, and thus deserves a first look. The question I keep asking myself is this: 'Will an ultimate 5th wave oil top (the assumption is it has not) occur near coincident with or completely out of sync with a Dow top?' It is an interesting thought, and I believe demand is very crucial to the price of oil. I also believe price has a strong effect on demand. I also recommend reading of this: RUSSELL BULLISH ON THE FINANCIALS gold-eagle.com Russell is an old but respected veteran. He has been more bearish than bullish, and bullish POG. But here I think he is throwing a word of caution out there, to the general market bears. He also makes note of the importance of the same DOW retracement area that I did in #msgid-24745036. That area has held here. As for me I have been a bit like the fly on the wall. Maybe by the end of this series I will have organized a preferred view. I only know from the land of hard knocks that fast and hard opinions or views in this business can be financially painful. TF