Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (534)	5/17/2008 7:50:13 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

General thinking... Went to flat this week, as posted here, getting out of long this week with Nasdaq at 2519. I felt, and still feel, that dessert is being served and the main course is behind us. These last couple of months, I have said repeatedly that we were headed to a trap high. I still favour it, as I said on April 19: "In that spirit, I would say: 60% chance this rise is a trap and we re-test the lows, as I have already stated, and 40% chance this is going to the moon." I am neutral on what type of down/correction is coming. Many charts looks great. The best the bears can say is that there are a few damaged big caps and some decent bearish setups. So, I am torn as to whether this down I am betting on is a buying opportunity or a re-test of the 2008 lows. I have not had any gold exposure since mid-March, back when I went to Phoenix. Seems like quite a while ago. I was still in Phoenix when the government guaranteed BSC/JPM. Anyway, I thought gold would correct for quite a while. I'll be wrong if it does not turn down soon. Since suggesting on Sat, May 3, "I think one has to buy HUI here with a stop against this week's low.", (which I did not do) it has looked OK, rising from the May 2 close of 400 or so. It's the dollar chart that is more interesting to me. From a tape-reading point of view, price has been very strong since mid-May, with every little dip being a buying op'ty, with the Nasdaq, the strongest index, rising the better part of 200 points during that time. Technically speaking, we are right at here. I expect semi's to not have a good week next week. They are this week's canary in the coal mine for me. If they don't, then I am wrong. Been wrong lots; been stubborn less.