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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (9444)	5/21/2008 4:56:34 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Comments like you have made make this board a very good place to visit. Never thought of the contango situation in the vein you pointed out. We seem to live in an all or nothing market world these days. Look at the chart ... any prediction as to the next major low, assuming it has started or soon will start to dump? I'll refrain for a spell on that one. I anticipate layoffs again the AK oilpatch, in the next few years. I can smell it coming. Not hard to smell for a seasoned vet like me. By the end maybe the next mega boom will be underway here ... a gas line to the L48. Going to stay here long enough to get a piece of that action on the real estate end.

To: John Pitera who wrote (9444)	5/21/2008 9:25:43 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

I don't see what's going to stop oil from going to the psychological resistance level of $150/bbl.. There's no resistance overhead, pension funds are buying oil like it's a stock index, and the government/private market has done little to create a long-term alt-energy plan (aside from ethanol). Hawk

To: John Pitera who wrote (9444)	5/21/2008 10:10:17 PM
From: oldsman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

John, what is the best vehicle or the easiest to short oil? Just to let you know, I have only traded stocks and ETF's. I know just enough about options to be dangerous to my PF. Regards, oldsman

To: John Pitera who wrote (9444)	5/21/2008 11:29:49 PM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

I don't understand. Isn't a cotango situation the norm? If I agree in a futures contract to deliver oil at 140 dollars a barrel, to make it a no risk situation, I would have to buy oil at the spot current price and store it at a cost, and pay insuance on the product and lose interest on my investment. So the price I would want in the future is enough to cover all those expenses plus a profit. So why shouldn't oil sell for more in the future and not less (backwardation). And if I was a producer, I would want to factor in inflation, dollar value etc to decide on the future price I wouild sell at.Rich