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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Galirayo who wrote (7013)	6/6/2008 9:54:13 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41420

Hi Ray, OK you had one coming your way.<smile> I really thought we had a confirmation breakout this morning until I read in IBD that volume was off 3% in the NAZ. This puts us back in range bound trading and once again I should have sold into the top of the range and instead held for the break. That darn wheel within a wheel, of yours continually keeps turning. I'll just try to get the heck out of this bruin barb wire with out getting too many stitches. I guess it is just normal to barbeque beef in the summer and go bear hunting in the fall. From my perspective this oil thing has gone parabolic. I got my little butt trimmed by a sugar commodity contract after I graduated and realized that commodities are way too fast and way too leveraged for my liking. Can't help but think that this weeks runup was like two back to back limit up days together. It is a universal truth that positive price action draws speculative participation from the inexperienced investor. Fast price action or runaway climaxes are the type of thing that draws in the inexperienced speculator. Now hyperbolic tops can go much higher and much longer than most ever dream. Accordingly - I'm watching and just trying to learn another market top coming into history here. My bet is your 8-10 rule may be useful here or 4-5 limil up days are time to start scaling in a short. I'm a paper trader ONLY on this top,but it will be most fun to observe. I know I'm selling the heck out of small cars and my diesels are growing cobwebs (Thank goodness I'm not heavy in them). Many dealers I know are drowning in new and used diesels. I am quite frankly in awe that more are not screaming rape and insuisting that our elected officials get off their dead asses and allow the development of our own natural resources NOW!! At least 4-6 years out we'll have safe and very profitable domestic resources enriching our own and not middle east arch enemies. We seem to be paralyzed and I for one am outraged at the timidity to provide leadership from all candidates. This too shall pass. We have 40-60 days before earnings. Next week is the week before options expiration and the vix is gettin frisky - I expect a complete exploration of both range bound extremes plus or minus a violation of either by 1-3 days. Much like yesterday was a breakout that never was - it will be key to see who holds the gains the best. Oil companies not holding their gains today - while crude sets an explosive record suggests profit taking as the commodity enters the final fast price merkup distributioon phase. It is this kind of price action that must be publicized to allow the final distribution of long term accumulated positions to be distributed to the weak individual speculator from the long term accumulator. It is how markets work - when at their best. It is a thing of beauty. Realestate now oil. Bonds are dead - when this blowoff is over equities are going to loook like milktoast and AARP's best recommendation. I like your style - in the middle of the mayhem humor, is often the only thing left to do. My dad always amazed me - when things got really rough - he always had the capability of laughing at himself for being in such a position -it often defused panic and enabled a recovery. Of course it helped that he was always very conservative.<smile> I'm off to Alask this Sunday. I'm going Halibut fishing and won't be in touch near as much. While there ,I'm stopping by the Alaskan pipeline and saying a prayer about returning to the American spirit - the aggressive engineering capabilities of providing for our own citizens and not relying on the greed of countries that could care less about our well being. God Bless America!!! Bob