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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (948)	6/13/2008 4:04:59 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Yes, good point, it's true. Was a good line. Buyers came in as if on command. Does this mean much in the longer run? Maybe not. Such lines very often fall - on the 2nd or 3rd try. SPX retraced 38% of the leg of a decline since June 6. The trend is still down. I'l probably short any strength on Monday - but if I see SPX above 1375 - the plan is to say "Oh ch*t!" - and to cover, or hedge. Or to look for a long entry. Above that level, it looks like the bear is liable to become a sick puppy, at least for the near term.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (948)	6/17/2008 4:37:30 PM
From: illyia	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

INDU approaching formation line. Will it bounce? Will it make a 4 of C? Will it outright blow-through fail? stockcharts.com Stick around AA. This is the smartest board around. i.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (948)	6/21/2008 12:35:38 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

Just got home from a great week away. Hope everyone traded well this week. The last chart I posted before going away was a weekly Dow, with the simple remark "Not much commentary required here...". It showed a bear flag on the weekly. This past week, we fell out of the bear flag. Here is the same chart with the new price bar: The $XMI is similar in structure to this Dow chart. If these are really bear flags, and who knows if they are (a better bounce would have made them better flags, so I am a little skeptical), then they point lower. $OEX is also not far above its March closing low on the daily. This week we made a new Dow low, basis weekly close, vis a vis the Jan/Mar lows. We are still about a hundred Dow points above the low close on the daily. As you'd expect, many of the non-tech charts are right at their Jan or Mar low. Most of them have no viable impulsive count for up anymore. Should be a very interesting week in the market next week. I see some fear finally coming into the market and I think I read an increasing number of bears now on SI these last couple of weeks. Still not enough fear for a lasting low imho, but a decent multi-day bounce can not be far off. It's been a funny decline since the May highs -- lots of false alarms and still lots of strength in tech and the mid-caps. Tech and mid-caps still look pretty darn good really. I think being away for much of the time since going short in May has helped me stay in it -- you know, not following the wiggles.