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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockfiend who wrote (80164)	6/15/2008 2:05:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Short treasuries and buy houses if you think hyperinflation is coming. That is the same thing I said 3 year years ago. For the record, I have advocated gold, treasuries, and shorting financials and homebuilders. But no ones record is perfect. Energy soared far more than I expected but then again I am a believer in peak oil, and I also believe peak oil does not equal inflation. On the other hand "rising prices = inflation" advocates have a hell of a lot more explaining to do that me. 30 year treasuries under 5% is one of them. So spare me the sap about "failing to predict" things. There is not an inflationist on the planet that predicted treasuries would do what they did. I will up the ante. 10 year and 30 year treasury yields will make new all time lows before a bear market in treasuries begins. One more point: You clearly do not understand the difference between money and credit, or what the Fed can or cannot do. Mish

To: stockfiend who wrote (80164)	6/15/2008 5:19:54 AM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Deflation call? Wait...... We are just getting to the tail end of the credit game, first stocks will deflate starting this year and get worst in 2010/2011. We have just finished 34 years of Early, Middle and Late Economic Expansion, we are just at the end of this credit cycle. The deflation is just starting! Here is your deflation roadmap! Stocks 2008, starting this year. Then after that: 2008 into 2009 and onward -consumer staples -services Followed by: (most likely about a year away) 2009 into 2010 -commodities -utilities Then we start a new cycle 2012ish into 2015 (market bottom): Rough guess for now. You buy, starting in this order and going forward as rally build steam. -bonds (usually head up just ahead of market bottom, as do finanacials, so watch this in the next few years to mark the bottom). -financials -consumer cyclicals -technology Do not forget, at market tops the very last to rally ahead of that top are. What have these two done? -basic materials (what have steel and copper done) -energy And just before these two, what would you guess? -commodities! These three sectors (commodities, basic materials, energy) are the final leaders at the market top. I can see in your post you understand little about economic/market cycles. We will have our deflation! Mish is so on the money, watch. And 6 people liked that post! Unreal. And I just handed you your roadmap to invest, what to short as we go forward, do so and you will make a killing. West

To: stockfiend who wrote (80164)	6/16/2008 7:51:22 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 116555

Very accurate correlates everything succinctly. Thanks! All debts needed to be paid. For debts to be paid, the debtors would have to cap consumption harshly to use their income to pay the debts. Consumption will go down dramatically tanking the US economy from one day to another. Facing the prospects of having all assets deflating because of the perception that economy will tank and severe recession would ensue. Facing an election year. FED and US government decided to keep printing. Doled out checks as stimulus to keep economy going -at least until next president get the pineapple to peel it aft Jan. 09 That what's been done at the microeconomic level. Once new president gets the pineapple to peel, Jan. 09, it will be a different story. Electorates no longer need to be placated and new president has no other option as to wield the machete like a sugar cane cutter here in Brazil. Slash left and right pitilessly!