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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (72320)	6/15/2008 10:48:44 PM
From: Cogito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 542125

WF - Finally somebody comes up with some evidence. Thank you. I'm a little confused by those charts, however. One of them shows China's and India's rise in consumption through 2005, which doesn't help us much, since the price of oil has doubled in the past year, and we need to know more about that. That chart appears to indicate that by 2005, China was poised to go above 7 million barrels per day in imports for the first time. But everything on that one chart predates the current steep rise in oil prices, and there's something wrong with that 7 million barrel per day figure, too. Here's something from the story you linked to about China building up strategic oil reserves: "China's goal is to build strategic oil reserves equivalent to 30 days of imported oil by 2010, says China's top economic planning administration. That's about 100 million barrels based on China's current import level and about 120 million in 2010 based on estimated growth rates." If 30 days supply is 100 million barrels, then that means China is currently importing around 3.3 million barrels per day. That doesn't jibe with the other chart. That's why I'm confused. The story also says this: "Assuming China's imports will increase by 5% a year, a percentage that is in line with current estimates, imports will nearly reach 4 million barrels a day by 2010, Williams said. A reserve level of 30 days of imports would total 120 million barrels." So that first chart would appear to be based on incorrect figures, at least with respect to China. The other chart showing their crude oil imports vs. price is interesting. I'm not sure why they measure the imports in tons instead of barrels, but there is a clear correlation between the rising price of crude and China's increasing imports. Except from about mid 2006 to early 2007, where for some reason, the price of crude dropped quite a bit despite the fact that China's imports continued to increase. Then you have a quotation from T. Boone Pickens, answering a question, apparently, though we don't know what the question was. Probably something about manipulation of oil prices or speculation driving the price up, we can surmise. He says there's about a 1.4 million bpd shortfall in supply. I see that supply is tight, but it seems to be very difficult to determine just how tight. - Allen