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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (102945)	6/16/2008 10:48:01 AM
From: cyesp	Respond to of 206110

GL - Your post is a little unclear, are you including oil and gas producers in your "bloated pig" category? In oil services, what are your top two or three short picks? It is worth noting that SLB is a good canary for OSX and it has been flat to down for the past 60 days. I agree that its P/E is stretched. Thanks Cy

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (102945)	6/16/2008 1:23:31 PM
From: JimisJim	Respond to of 206110

Greenie: first off, while I am a LT B&H investor mostly, I do some swing trading and appreciate hearing all sides of the trade... FWIW: I've been long VRC (now NOV) almost continuously since 1991 when I was working there (spent 13 years at VRC/NOV and over 20 in the OSX sector, primarily the offshore segment). While I agree that the sector is itching for a ST/IT correction and have trimmed my trading blocks, I remain bullish for the LT (i.e., a year or more out) for OSX and still hold, and will continue to hold even during a painful correction, what remains of my OSX exposure -- which is offshore, deep water, focused... indeed, I am counting on a correction to pick up more trading shares and depending on the depth of it, more core holdings as well. Why don't I sell them all right now and rebuy lower if that's the way I think it will play out? Because I have been in the OSX industry so long, I know that the question of the next boom or bust is only a matter of when, not if... but I also know first hand that OSX as a sector can move irrationally no matter how "right" one is about the direction share prices in the sector SHOULD go. So I hold old, long positions that have a cost basis lower than what I think any correction will bring just in case I am wrong. If I didn't have a day job, I might be more active using the ultra short ETFs to take advantage of both sides of the trade -- which is probably the best way to play OSX right now. But I do, and find it impossible to devote the time and attention to ultra short ETFs and/or the short side of individual OSX stocks. Cheers, Jim

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (102945)	6/16/2008 2:25:02 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 206110

Greenie, I seriously suggest that you read all Dabum's essays on trading he so kindly posted here. Subject 55245 And the, read them all again. He's consistently been the most successful trader I've seen on SI and learning from him has saved me from a whole world of hurt.

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (102945)	6/17/2008 7:35:19 AM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 206110

I am and have been long DUG since Mid April. Overall this has been a money-losing short for me despite all the trading I have done around it. I still believe it will move upwards. Oil seems to be in a topping mode. Yesterday's action was very poor, with oil opening up $4 and closing down over $1. Another repeat and I say the odds strongly favor a correction in oil, which could bring energy securities down with it, save only PERHAPS, refiners due to widening spreads in that scenario. However, refiners also do tend to trade with oil half the time, so... I think earnings will be great, however, cost inflation may just grow faster than the earnings. YOY comparisons should be fine, however, as that cost inflation creeps up the sequential and annual comparisons will become harder harder. At that point I think service companies are going to be most vulnerable. If the market anticipates that there ought to be a correction. On the flip side, this is one of the few sectors that has been working all year, so there has been a concentration of money moving into it and this crowded trade may just take a while to unwind when that time comes. Notice the strong divergence on CMF in both charts below AND the falling volume with price not keeping up. Kind of scary since it has been a while since I have seen this. The divergence will be resolved either way, so get ready. stockcharts.com stockcharts.com Best regards,