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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1014)	6/22/2008 5:43:39 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 3209

re: can make a case for up into the fall or down into the fall What I really was trying to say regarding strength in tech and mid-caps is this: The breadth on this decline since May just stinks! It is being lead by the non-tech mega-caps, but the broadest measures are not yet following that lead. I have no idea what kind of structure we would have if we rise from these levels -- something very jello'y that's for sure.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1014)	6/22/2008 7:49:45 AM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 3209

we are at a new inflection point here Going into shorter time frames, we just had a month-long decline which looks - in non-tech - impulsive (it may not be finished yet). Next several days to weeks may give some clues. If we have a corrective bounce with much of the fear receding, that could be seriously bearish. As of now, a 50% retracement of the May-June SPX decline is in the 1370's.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1014)	6/22/2008 9:18:54 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

I don't find that tech has to necessarily "confirm" non-tech. Here are 3 examples, each in a different time frame: The DOW topped in January 2000, and the OTC's rallied to new highs into March. Last October non-tech's topped on October 11, and OTC's made a new high a few weeks later. Most recently, "Old Economy" made a top on May 19, and tech rallied to a new high in June. In each of those cases the perceived divergence did not stop the markets from breaking down. Therefore, I keep an eye on them, but find no reason to allow these things to weigh too heavily when it comes to making decisions.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1014)	6/22/2008 1:40:59 PM
From: SwampDogg	Respond to of 3209

Looks like one more thrust in the TSX to the mid 15Ks and that should be it. Of interest the index is now down a wee bit since July '07 Oils may want one more high while the ferts/RIM top out and banks continue to fall apart. Quite a witches brew that may result in quite the mess going into the end of the year. Short signal would come on a break to new ATHs and then a revist into the recent trading range. Inverse...long on a breakdown and rally above recent lows. Would be 5 waves off early '08 high/low. May end up being a 4-5 bagger stockcharts.com Horizon is also bringing in a 2x long/short US long bond in the next month. Nice LT position.