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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (36082)	6/26/2008 12:16:21 AM
From: len_chan	Respond to of 217546

Re: China's Olympics and Oil. My theory about the Olympics and near term oil price: Coal burning (smog producing) power plants around Beijing will also be turned off (as much as is possible). To replace that power, diesel plants will be running at 100%. To prepare for that, China will have been stockpiling diesel to run those power plants. They'll also be stockpiling diesel and gasoline to give them some options if (another) disaster strikes during the Olympics. Coming into the Olympics, all the tanks in China will be full, and that extra buy-side pressure will be off. In fact, I suspect that the sudden upwards repricing of 18% of fuel price in China two weeks ago was a signal that the reserve tanks were full and the government didn't need any more "cheap" oil. Who knows... my real question about oil is how much demand destruction is necessary to get oil down to USD 100 / barrel...

To: energyplay who wrote (36082)	6/26/2008 5:41:02 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217546

hello ep, just in in-tray Since everyone here is a basic optimist on the markets, I bring you a bearish view... ;-) Albert Edwards & James Montier interviewed at Welling@weeden bigpicture.typepad.com

To: energyplay who wrote (36082)	6/26/2008 2:07:41 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217546

China considering boycott of iron ore from BHP, Could be that BHP booked lots of ships. Shiiping skyrocketed. Vale goes tell Chinese that lower shipping costs of BHP is wayo and they are ou to screw the Chinese. China considering boycott of iron ore from BHP Financials Sponsored by: BHP 80.98, -2.09, -2.5%) (AU:BHP: news, chart, profile) is seeking more for its iron ore than the nearly 100% increase mainland steelmakers agreed to pay its rival Rio Tinto (RTP:rio tinto plc sponsored adr News, chart, profile, more Last: 451.06-9.77-2.12% RTP 451.06, -9.77, -2.1%) (AU:RIO: news, chart, profile) , the South China Morning Post reported. The newspaper reported an unnamed China official said an agreement with BHP may be reached next week, but any move by the miner to link long-term contract prices of iron ore to higher spot prices would be rejected. Separately, Marcus Randolph, chief executive for ferrous and coal businesses at BHP, said he was "delighted to see the progress" on prices, but added the company wasn't being paid "the same price as somebody else is for their similar product delivered to China," according to the report. Randolph said freight costs for shipping each ton of iron ore to China from Australia were about $55 to $60 lower than the cost of shipping it from Brazil. BHP and Rio produce iron ore in Brazil, as does South American mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO:companhia vale do rio doce sponsored adr News, chart, profile, more Last: 35.71-0.97-2.64% 2:06pm 06/26/2008 Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: RIO 35.71, -0.97, -2.6%) . In a recent note to clients, Deutsche Bank analyst Rob Clifford estimated that the shipping differential between Brazilian and Australian iron ores at $53 a ton on the spot market and $27 a ton when calculated on a long-term ship-leasing basis. Thursday's report came on the heels of other reports earlier this week that China's largest steel producer, Baosteel Group, has agreed to an average 85% increase in the benchmark price of iron ore supplied by Rio Tinto. That agreement broke a precedent by charging a premium above the 65%-71% iron-ore price increases that Chinese steelmakers and Brazil's Vale negotiated earlier this year. Japanese steelmakers also had struck a similar price agreement with Vale. Japanese media has also reported that Nippon Steel Corp. (JP:5401: news, chart, profile) (NISTY:nippon steel corp adr News, chart, profile, more Last: 54.10-1.45-2.61% 12:00am 06/25/2008 Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: NISTY 54.10, -1.45, -2.6%) and other local steelmakers were poised to accept a doubling of iron-ore prices, as demanded by Rio Tinto, for the current financial year. Varahabhotla Phani Kumar is a reporter in MarketWatch's Hong Kong bureau.