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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (80666)	6/26/2008 11:03:44 AM
From: jmiller099	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I am not pressing any bets. In fact I was assigned profitably on my covered calls against my double short ETF on Monday. I am aware about the duration of negativity and how to use year on year stats. The point was meant to be taken entirely with the foreclosure backlog effect. Not meant to be taken in isolation to build a counter point. Also, the point about the leading indicators just starting to turn positive in limited markets should not be compared with duration of the downturn. Those need to be compared with the length of time they went from leading to finally setting in. And finally, may I have your comment on affordability? Down payments plus 3x or 4x median incomes?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (80666)	6/26/2008 3:38:16 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I noticed in my area in Seattle a number of homes sold very recently, after inventory got to the highest level I'd ever seen (in my neighborhood). Prices dropped 5% y-o-y but up in May versus April. Inventory is still fairly high though, and most sales I noticed were in June not May, so the monthly trend will probably continue up for at least one more month. Not sure if it's a dead cat bounce yet or what. I've noticed lots of projects which stalled, but many more proceeded full speed. Prices still amazingly high relative to incomes, though. But with retail inflation running at 8-10% the true y-o-y has been off 15% and even going sideways for another year would be a further decline of 8-10%. Of course... wages are only going up 2%. Aye, there's the rub. That, and mortgages to qualified borrowers in short supply.