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To: John Vosilla who wrote (1696)	6/27/2008 12:43:48 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1718

First, Long Island, especially as you get closer to Queens is severely land constrained. Therefore if you're not buying, you're renting and vice-versa. The high home prices of recent years have pushed many to rent and I'll give you a nickel if you can guess what's happening to rents right now... I know how this game is played and there's no way I'm going to get screwed on rent increases anymore which have already gone up 20% in 3 years. So in affect, the real depreciation in many homes is upward of 35% when factoring in rent rises of recent years. w/r/t home prices, much of Long Island has been declining in nominal terms for 30 months now. All areas of NY are not homogenous. The area I am looking at is 30% Doctors, 30% Real Estate related, 20% lawyers, 20% financial services. Doctors and lawyers are stable, point blank. There are 2 first-class hospitals within 2 miles of me. The 30% in Real-Estate have already been affected and I believe prices I am seeing incorporate the adjustments that have already occurred. The wildcard is the 20% in Finance, of course, but then it depends on location. Quite simply the best locations always have a bidder. If it's not somebody in Financial Services, then it's someone else. Even now there are bidding wars for properties priced right. So it all depends on LOCATION and PRICE, the things that have always mattered.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (1696)	6/27/2008 12:54:55 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1718

I may add one more thing. We cannot underestimate the power of the Dollar. Pound for pound (no pun intended) it's now quite a bit cheaper to hire a New York finance specialist than one in London or many other places. So I think the death of Finance in NY is highly exaggerated.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (1696)	6/29/2008 8:55:57 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 1718

<<Are you concerned the fallout of the banking crisis with the wealth effect and layoffs ,which are a 2008 story, will drag down many suburbs of NY for years to come? Sort of how it dragged it in the mid 70's and early 90's..>> Let me be a little clearer with my answer. YES... I don't think I'm going to go to contract with this house. I've been sufficiently scared by what went on in the financials this week. In NY we have 1) no interest rate relief 2) expensive housing and 3) a rapidly deteriorating macro-economy where the "prime" jobs are being lost. Maybe 1 more year won't hurt. The credit crunch only began in August. I still do think where prices have been blasted - i.e. FL, CA - there are opportunities.