Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1197)	7/2/2008 9:41:03 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 3209

Given that the OSX is in an indirect play on the oil price I would be even more interested to see your analysis on the XOI or XNG (good OSX chart though). Oil is obviously in the 5th final move higher. I don't think this is LT high so it's either the end of wave I or wave III. Not an EW person yet so if I'm getting it wrong let me know. Guessing it's the end of wave III. Same chart in daily w/different result

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1197)	7/2/2008 10:12:20 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3209

So if the OSX breaks lower are you going to play it via DUG, OIH, shorting individual issues, or just stand aside and see what develops? Usually cyclical stocks (such as OSX) peak way before the underlying commodity. As such if the OSX goes parabolic here it's either a sign of 2 things: 1) Mania 2) The floor under oil is going to be way higher than most expect. Say a spike to 150-200 range followed by a floor of 120+ or something like that. Bank stocks up 3% and nicely off the lows even while the market does nothing. If they stay firm and go just a bit higher odds greatly increase for a multi-day bounce in the general markets. For some reason my daily chart of the BKX won't post. Thus far market bounce is still very vulnerable.