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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1200)	7/2/2008 10:30:16 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 3209

Agree with all your points. One thing for sure, I would not try to anticipate the top. I would wait for the appetizer to be served (clear out-of-place move down), then short the bounce for the meat and potatoes move. $OSX already this morning testing the top of the small ending diagonal (blue) and the outer rising wedge top line (orange), as posted before the open. It is decision time... right now. $RUT and $MDY were such strong horses into May. They also held on with good relative strength as the mega-caps folded. Lately they caught up a fair bit and are clearly sporting a 1-2-3 sequence off the May highs. I have little doubt there is another s-t low to come there. Could be a week or two away if it is building the 4th wave here vis a vis the decline out of May highs. Check out the $RUT weekly trend line out of the 2002 lows. ;-)

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1200)	7/2/2008 11:33:39 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

The oil exporters are just choking on the flood of money. The infrastructure stocks face a problem though -- They can not spend money any faster. Folks keep bidding up these infrastructure stocks, but it is making them over-valued here. After a certain point, there is nothing in the core business that you can spend more money on. Even the money being spent now won't "yeild" for a long time. Great juncture: Either $OSX caves very soon or else we are facing some type of shock, beyond speculation, that will see money chasing them to ridiculous valuations.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1200)	7/2/2008 11:46:12 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3209

Early days yet, but... What I have thought over the last couple of months was the following: 1) Equity indices down 2) Gold would stay in down trend for a while yet -- into at least late summer 3) Recession starts to bite. Folks finally give up on the silliness that "emerging markets" are a no-lose bet. 4) Crude would eventually back-off, giving equities a s-t lift, BUT... soon after, the realization that the slow down is more than just the US would begin to hit and equities would roll over. 5) Dollar up eventually in a big rise -- "big" relative to what we have seen last few years -- an actual decent rally. This helps crude and other commodity prices, but hurts exports. 6) More bad news will come out of the credit bubble deflating. It just has to. I dunno how much it has unwound yet in the really big picture, but it ain't more than a third I figure. -------------------------- The transports do not look good here. They have not looked good for a couple of weeks. Coal is rolling over here as well. They are surely related, given the recent great business in moving coal for export.