Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1259)	7/3/2008 10:22:02 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

(edit) As for golds I'm looking at a couple things: 1) The volume coming in of late was significant, pullback the last few days is lighter volume 2) Action relative to market decline at least early on was extremely good 3) Not sure if they're simply serving desert or the start of a bigger IT move, but I don't see oil correcting hard yet. Focus still very much on inflation worries. 4) Euro move lower after ECB raise looks artificial. Dollar near some important support. If it goes oil/gold will move sharply higher. 5) At least ST odds favor a move to new highs imho. If that happens 1200 to 1400 come into play. Don't want to miss that move. Waiting for confirmation makes things a tad too expensive for my tastes. 6) I'm too much of a gold bug and have lost all objectivity As I've said it's not without risk, but at least ST this looks to be a good entry pt.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1259)	7/3/2008 10:39:16 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3209

The markets should have some sort of oversold rally soon, but it's hard to see the catalyst. Agree that crashes are rare events so part of my reason for covering/selling some SRS again. Normally we may not need a catalyst when this oversold, but right in the heart of earning season w/oil set to pick up speed if it breaks much higher - seems kinda dire. Any rally will probably be very powerful, but very short lived. I'm thinking a few days to a week.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (1259)	7/3/2008 4:58:55 PM
From: alburk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3209

<img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p31472601779&a=141705273&r=884"> <img src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GLD&p=W&st=2006-01-01&i=p32074653428&a=144588961&r=865"> AA, is this what you are anticipating w/ regards to gold/gold stocks? A 'C' down would project to approx 76, or approx 17 points. Looking at the US$, it is difficult to see an obvious rally count...it would need to hound out of the bearish flag/channel off the lows. Gold stocks today acted more skittish-ly than the metal, though they recovered somewhat later in the day. Many "gold bugs" seemed to expect that the US$ would fall with the ECB rate increase. Instead, it spiked upward...hard.