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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Wharf who wrote (9502)	7/12/2008 1:11:20 PM
From: dybdahl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71475

Note, that homes are not financed in banks like Roskilde Bank in Denmark. Making a headline like "The crisis has hit Denmark" is totally misleading. The dollar exchange rate has hit us already, making some companies profit a lot, and others lose money. But Roskilde Bank is a no-issue that makes a good headline. Are house prices on the decline? Well, some have been, some have risen, now it changed so that others are falling and others are rising again. The construction industry has come into big trouble, meaning that there is actually some unemployment now, and we have less guest workers. But they're still building houses and they are still planning new buildings in many places. Some are complaining that it would be bad to add more RE to the market, but others point at the fact that a lot of the RE on the market is really not for sale in the sense that people really want to get rid of it, they just try to see what they can earn if they sell now. There is also still a very large demand for outsourcing because of lack of local labor. And unlike USA, we don't have a trade debt that needs to be financed.

To: The Wharf who wrote (9502)	7/12/2008 1:40:17 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

There are 2 austrian banks Erste Banks and Raiffeisen International with high exposure to CEE. The eastern European region is known for high margin, like Libor + 500 business and it is regarding credit risks under reserved to say the least. It is often cited that default rates are underreported because the courts in eastern Europe are slow and overworked so the actual default numbers will me much higher. Those banks are CEE "pure plays" and as such always a matter of "immediate" takeover. Alas pfft. Those are high beta trades and one hiccup in one eastern country, like Slovakia, Romania, the Balkan, Ukraijn and we are all downhill. All the loans are the equivalent of Alt A, low doc loans. Try enforcing something in eastern Europe and if you dont shut up they save the next bullet for you.