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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jaker who wrote (7609)	7/13/2008 1:12:21 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41469

Hi jaker, An Index review: The Dow is paying for its leadership to new highs: stockcharts.com The SPX has violated past support lows the greatest: http:ttp:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93565669416 May well be some rotational money going into semi's as they've underperormed the cyclicals and resource stocks for verry long time. stockcharts.com Small caps still have shown resilience.Note that past upward waves had SAR reversal at lower numbers than now - more rotational money sneaking in here?Note quadruple witching last quarter (March) put final spike bottom in later in month - similar set up for next week or maybe a week from monday or tuesday? stockcharts.com Small caps dropped fastest but not farthest(hope for a rotational period from big caps) and have anemic uptrend struggling from last week - could have final spike next week also.Sar reversal point says it can happen NOW: stockcharts.com Entry into market now plus or minus a week will require holding your nose,closing your eyes and jumping into the abyss of market noise - but imo - it is a low risk event. If one has the time,a fine tuned jump when marginal new lows are being made in all indexes and Vix spikes into mid 30's to mid 40's,http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73189438561 and put call ratio spikes to 1.30-1.50:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73189438561 It looks to me like the real carnage is over and downward spike will start showing the next rotational winners as new highs and new lows become relatively more friendly(view this evolution on a multi month time frame as major rally take time to mount and build)- note recent second spike was of less magnitude than the 490.00 double bottom in March.Once we see a SAR on new highs (happened 3 days ago) Mr market usually continues for a while:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93565669416. I'm thinking the headlines will be horrible and the entry to the longside could be very rewarding. I'm really sick and tired of resource and oil stocks especially dominating this market. Realestate and home builders are broken. Banks and brokers are broken- maybe some hedge funds will have to cover their record high short interest and pay back all the free money they where going to get rich levedging off of.If so it will create some huge coverings and losses that have been covered up by computer games.I saw this happen in Cohu on the day Bear Stearns imploded). As corporate america has bought back many shares,the linch knot has quietly caught those shorting and over leveredging the funds created in a real bind as the only supply to cover with is available at higher prices. The algorythmic depression of stock prices has allowed substantial and silent accumulation by value investors and the trap door will be swung when the fed controls equity hedgefund deleveredging and calls in naked shorts that inflated shares outstanding. This quiet wall street kink will be the fuel of an equity rally that will put quality and conservative value back in good stocks - those that sport no leverage, compounded growth and good margins even in tough times.Not to mention those that pay solid dividends. JMHO Bobn