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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Horgad who wrote (95629)	7/14/2008 3:21:33 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Here's a chart from Weimar (from my Weimar page): And here's one from Argentina: Unless and until interest rates are significantly & consistently above the actual inflation rate, gold will continue in its bull. In others words, the US is spitting into the wind right now and has been for years... and the same with virtually every other central bank. Volcker did it but at the cost of a long & deep recession. Weimar did it via a new currency with actual backing with physical assets. Argentina hasn't done it and has been saved so far by their exports and the overall commodity bull. It can be stopped but it requires truly long term political will... and if there was a long term political will futures contract, I'd almost be a perma-short. There are a very few indications that money supply growth is slowing world wide and that we're in a similar period to 1974, including some other small indications that the bond vigilantes are back... but so far, they're almost inconsequential on the short or intermediate term. The closest single chart (from my forecast page) that shows the general area of the point of no return is the one that adds shadowstats.com corrections to CPI in order to take a best efforts shot at the real 10 year interest rate.