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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (69947)	7/15/2008 1:55:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

32 items. Quite a collection. Thanks. That was 7 years ago. Timing is always difficult and markets can stay irrational for a long time. But an excellent list for all that. 18 to 24 months was not the best timing for most of them. That's life in the markets. Several of them did come to pass and others are lining up. It's not so easy for Big Ben to print his way out of it as Uncle Al KBE could do. More fun coming. Gung Ho, Mqurice For ease of reference: If we do not believe that at least 25% of the headlines will come to pass within the next 18-24 months (time determined by recklessness of Maestro), we should start to accumulate stocks now, looking pass the valley of gloom. The sooner we see some of these headlines, the sooner we can get back to buying "for the long term". “GE Lays Off Another 5%” “GM Shuts SUV Lines” “S&P Downgrades Cisco” “Dow Sets Record Historic Decline On Record Volumn” “Major Fraud Discovered at …..” “Margin Panic” “Economic Cycle Rediscovered” “Productivity Index Misled for The Past 10 Years” “Social Security Under Funding Expected” “GE Capital Owes Up On Hidden Losses” “The House That Jack Left” “Threat Of War In The Middle East” “Russia Sharply Increases Arms Export To Save Economy” “Butter Healthier Than Margarine” (this one is true already) “Too Much Vitamin C Causes Brain Damage” (ditto) “Cellular Phone Radiation Is ….” “Japan to Save Economy By Increasing Defense Spending” “Global Economy Contracted 5% - Lead By US” “FED Lowers Discount Rate to 2.5%” “Corporate Bond Spreads at Historic Peak” “Euro Wobbles On Economic Disunity” “Dollar Implodes” “Amazon Defaults” “Congress Holds Hearing On The Cause Of Doom” “Gold Is Back” “Precious Metal Reappears On Business Week Where To Invest Your Money Issue” “CNBC Increases Time Reporting On Bonds” “NY Crime Rate Rises Sharply” “Trading Volume and Margin Loan Profit Down Sharply” “Lights Out At Ameritrade” “Many Blue Chips Trading at Replacement Value, Further Losses Not Expected” “Nasdaq Hits P/E 10, Early Recovery Not Expected”

To: TobagoJack who wrote (69947)	7/15/2008 2:41:47 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Economic report from NZ. Speaking of hairy legs, GE is showing a bit of fur on calf. finance.yahoo.com Meanwhile, a trivial data point from Takapuna. While strolling along to a cafe and for a walk along the beach and to visit the Bruce Mason Centre [a Zenbu Wi-Fi customer], I noticed "GE Money" which was a nice looking retail building which had signs advertising money for sale. I didn't notice anybody there, but maybe there was a big crowd inside. Though in the minute or two in passing, there were not people waiting outside to get in, as in a popular cafe or movie or iPhone store. Nor were there people entering or leaving. I didn't see queues outside movie theatres, but that might have been because we didn't go near a movie theatre. I did see a queue outside a 6 month old fancy cafe/restaurant on the edge of Takapuna beach, which was full of status-seeking people spending more money than they have really got. That was our intended destination and wasn't really the sort of place I like [high prices and somewhat pretentious though most would just call it good quality]. Queues aren't for me if avoidable, so Sierra up the road got the business and they needed it. Many cafes needed our business by the look of them. When people have borrowed $100 billion from Mrs Watanabe via ASB Bank to revalue their houses upwards and add some more mortgage to enjoy some cafe culture, car culture and overseas holiday culture, while their incomes have remained constant [nearly], something has to give when the credit line is used up and interest payments are still required. What gives is disposable spending. Cafe, car, international travel. Petrol is not being used so much either. It's almost pleasant driving around Auckland now, especially on school holidays. I reported some time ago that faces at service stations looked grim. That has translated into less driving. Bus patronage is way up. Moral of the story = Sell or close cafes which are not popular Sell houses last summer Sell car yard last summer Sell Auckland Airport shares Sell Air New Zealand shares last summer Close car yard Buy Qualcomm and other iPhone/cyberphone suppliers Use Zenbu zenbu.co.nz and zenbu.net.nz Sell GE Money a year ago Dump NZ$ last summer Enjoy driving again. Cut tax on cyberspace Increase tax on fuels Labour politicians get a new job Hoard rice Sell gold [use proceeds to pay off debts] Sell The Warehouse last summer [retailer of Made in China] I am kidding about the rice. There is plenty of rice to hoard. The supermarket is full of it, including a sign saying, "We are having trouble sourcing rice so grab it now" with stacks of the stuff there. I had my bit of fun and really don't want more rice. Rice is so cheap that it's not going to be a problem. Just outbid SUV drivers and all the grain in the world will be available. SUV drivers are selling or scrapping their SUVs so there should be lots of grain available soon enough. As people go back to having meat three times a week, [to save money] instead of three times a day [to do the Atkins diet], there will be more grain available. 1 kg of rice = NZ$2 [give or take a bit] 1 kg of dead cow = NZ$12 [more or less, on average] There are many more calories in $1 of rice than $1 of cow. The best way to stop being fat is to put actual food in the mouth, and not too much of it. And walk the 10km to work. Or run. Maybe walk to work and run home. Walk contemplatively. Run for fun and enjoy a nice shower and a delicious meal of rice, lots of vegetables, sultanas, an egg mixed in, maybe with some salmon. One problem is that one person's disposable spending is another person's core income. So that second person not only cuts disposable spending, they cut core spending too, such as mortgage repayments. Something gives in a bigger way then. If it was just NZ, it wouldn't be so bad, but American tourists are feeling impecunious too, so they are cutting holidays in NZ. So foreigners are not splashing money around to save NZ. Look out below. Mqurice