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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ajtj99 who wrote (9696)7/15/2008 3:07:18 PM
From: ggersh  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Would not mind you being right, but I think sometime after the Olympics....BWTFDIK<G>



To: ajtj99 who wrote (9696)7/15/2008 7:43:40 PM
From: Stoctrash  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Ajtj...

What's the basis of you model without giving to much detail?
I assume cycles & EW since you talking time and price?

I think we're do for nice bounce soon too..VIX spiked.
Only thing I'm worried about is a dollar crash to drag the markets much lower, but even then that would be a spike down and recover.
Europe don't want us to crash...cuz they'd crash too.

I just got back from vacation in Vegas/Utah/G-Canyon...Europeans are spending $$$ like made here on vacation. I swear 50-75% of the people I did tours/trips/events with had Euro tongues. I talked to some young guys & gals from Denmark and Germany yesterday and told them 1.60 it will be soon, they were stoked needless to say.



To: ajtj99 who wrote (9696)7/16/2008 4:23:19 PM
From: ajtj99  Respond to of 33421
 
Well, the lows came in a week early and about 10% higher than anticipated.

They couldn't keep things down any longer, and the Dow was incredibly oversold. BKX as well.



To: ajtj99 who wrote (9696)7/29/2008 2:11:56 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 33421
 
XBD-- BKX-- A CHANGE --JP starting to see light at the end of the long nightmare for financial stocks????
is it possible....

The 24th was a time turning point, market timing tools, cycles, Gann time turning points, Fibonacci time turning points can indicate turns and sometimes they turn out to be tops or bottoms.

Looking at the long term charts of MER, MS, UBS, etc is telling me that there are some values being created here and there are some excellent longer term buying opportunities that are arising in a number of premier companies. The problem is that another one or two of them may need to go under to complete the process.

I've beated up and berated financial and bank stocks here for the past couple of years it seems. I'm not saying that today is the bottom and this is not the ninth inning of this bear market; but more than half way through the process..... 7th inning or so?

BUT we'll undeniably look back at this period 12 and 18 months from now and say, yup premier companies like MER, MS, UBS etc where buys in the summerfall of 2008. Remember that these stocks have fallen so hard and for so long, and have such a huge overhang that they are not going to turn around and engage in any type of multiyear bull market without a nice long number of months where the darn things stabilize; get off of the life support machines and then have a sideways convolescence period. The fact that there are still folks who are trying to catch the bottom in these financial stocks shows the psychology of a bottom is not yet fully in place.

MER is really agressive in raising capital and writing down and selling off CDO's the past couple of days. The thing is the pattern that MER has set will now need to be followed by all the other investment banks and bigger financial firms, mark down these CDO's,

This is easily the most charitable, positive thing I have had to say on these Investment banks the past 2 years.... so this is a change of pace and the initial indication that my posture and outlook on the credit crisis is changing and I'm evolving away from my very bearish prognostications of the past 18 to 24 months. I'll become more positive as we move forward, and we'll have to see how the market handles the mark downs.

We all shall continue to monitor the situation and never underestimate the markets profound ability to amaze and astonish us.... both in bull market-bear market.....
whether equities, bonds, other debt, currencies, commodities, real estate, collectibles. etc.

John