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To: Frank who wrote (105284)7/17/2008 7:12:46 PM
From: jmj  Respond to of 206181
 
Dear Frank,

Thanks again for all your posts.. . and the money I've made from them. I think the answer may come from Barbie..... "math is hard"
apologies in advance to the humor impaired on thread.



To: Frank who wrote (105284)7/17/2008 8:01:45 PM
From: Keith J  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206181
 
Don't forget, Robry indicated EIA recently changed the sampling methodology and this also could be screwing with the numbers some.

With Appalachia coal at ~$135/ton, at what price point does electric generation begin switching over to NG?

KJ



To: Frank who wrote (105284)7/20/2008 7:54:55 PM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 206181
 
I really hope people are not thinking that the eastern seaboard cannot, and will not, do everything it can to swap out HO for NG this Winter. I live in Amherst MA and the university here which runs power for 30K students, spread over a ton of acreage and buildings, has just added full NG capacity to its central power plant. I knew that before this WSJ story.

The University of Massachusetts at Amherst is replacing a 1940s coal-burning power plant with one that can burn either natural gas or heating oil, allowing the school to choose whichever fuel is more affordable.

Ha Ha. Depending on which is more affordable? Oh my. It's not just the University. In my own neighborhood, people are stranding their oil tanks and boiler systems and adding an NG boiler. Yes it costs, but again, HO at 4.50 to 4.75 retail makes it a no-brainer decision.

And how about the zillion apartment dwellers out here?

Natural-gas utilities are offering free gas furnaces and other enticements to switch to natural gas from heating oil. Leonard Zangas, whose company, Vision Enterprises, owns and manages about 4,500 housing units in New York, is converting several buildings in Manhattan and Queens to natural gas to save on fuel costs, he says, and because "Consolidated Edison [the local utility] is paying for half our conversion costs."

I'm predicting there will be a run and shortages on portable space heaters in East Coast cities this year. Kw prices are like penny candy in price compared to HO. If you have not changed systems from HO to NG or if your landlord has not, you can easily ramp up your electric bill (and still make savings) with a few space heaters will turning your HO thermostat down.

I started thinking about all of this 4 weeks ago, and thought it was a marginal idea. Now I'm thinking this is anything but a marginal idea.

Thoughts?

online.wsj.com

Gregor