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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (37648)	7/28/2008 1:00:34 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217784

Currencies that appreciated vs. UDS: 124,2% BRL in second peso colombiano, 61,6%, followed by peso chileno (46,2%), next sol novo, of Peru (23,3%), then peso argentino (11,5%) and finally peso novo mexicano (2,9%). The only big market that currency devalued vis a vis USD: is Venezuelan bolivar that since january de 2003 went down 34,7%. Just for comparison euro appreciated against USD 50% in the same period

To: THE ANT who wrote (37648)	7/30/2008 12:44:15 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217784

Brazilian real under threat By Neil Mellor Published: July 30 2008 16:04 \| Last updated: July 30 2008 16:04 The Brazilian real’s resilience in the face of a sharp retreat for the country’s stock market could soon be under threat, argues Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. >>Klaser, we need a drop to 1.85/USD. Would be most welcome. Would prompt the hordes of tourists going aborad to stop. Slows imports and makes exports more attractive<< He notes that at the end of May, Brazil’s Bovespa index, was up about 16 cent from the start of the year, making it one of the world’s best performing indices. “However, the end of May also marked the turning point in the Bovespa’s fortunes,” Mr Mellor points out. “With a fall of some 21 per cent since the start of June, the Bovespa is now vying for worst performing market.” He notes that thanks largely to the country’s attractive short-term yields, the real - which is hovering around nine-year highs against the dollar - has yet to follow suit. But if recent trends in investor flows gather momentum, the real’s ascendancy may come under threat, he warns. While the outflows have not been particularly large, their consistency is notable. “Indeed, since mid-June, outflows have exceeded inflows by a factor of more than six to one – with only four days of recorded inflows over the period. “Over the past four years, the correlation between net inflows into Brazilian equities and the real’s performance against the dollar comes in at more than 89 per cent. “Even with the lure of interest rates of 13 per cent, the closeness of this relationship raises the question of whether it is time for investors to modify their positions.”

To: THE ANT who wrote (37648)	7/30/2008 8:43:15 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217784

Fine tuning should work. Interest rates up. Industry has stock. Which points to consumption tapering off. This will percolate back to raw materials. Across the whole economy growth slows. A 20% drop in the BRL VS the US would surely slows imports and will make exports more competitive. Lula won't get inflation get momentum. Has an eye in 2010 elections already... By next year, USD49 billion cheap money Lula threw at agriculture it will make a positive impact. If oil goes to 80 - 100 range, it will be akin to a tax cut in every person in this planet who use oil derivatives. That takes out world inflationary pressures.