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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (39709)	7/29/2008 12:39:10 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95626

Hi Bob, Good to hear from you - it has been quite awhile since you have posted here. You must have been on vacation?<g> The "market" has been in a funk this summer since the end of May. Yesterday was a real "downer". All stocks, 18 in the SOX, 18 in the SMH, and 23 in the Group closed in the "red" yesterday. The program traders had the big "SELL" sign out yesterday. Today they have changed their mind so far and most stocks are in the "green". Hard to say when this market is going to hit bottom. We are all watching and waiting for the day. Will it be some time in October as it was in 98 and 02, or some other month. Only time will tell and at some point in the future we can look back in perfect hindsight and say "that was the bottom". Towards the end of this week, data on chip sales for June should be released by SIA. A "good" number will help the chip suppliers, but probably won't do much for the Semi equips. More chips are being produced on reduced capex. As reported recently by SEMI, Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Sales will be down from 42.8B in 2007 to an estimated 34.1B in 2008, a reduction of 20 percent. Message 24797110 Message 24797138 This is not the type of growth that supports higher semi equip stock prices to say the least. Projections for 09 and 10 are up from 08 so when the "market" starts believing that, a "bottom" will be found and higher semi equip prices will ensue. Just wish I knew exactly when that will be.<g> Don