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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (37725)	7/30/2008 9:32:28 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217576

A war between the US and China would be a lose/lose situation, turning both into second rate powers at its conclusion. The use of anti-ship ballistic missile against a carrier group would have devastating consequences for no US president, not even someone such as Obama, could simply allow it to happen without major consequences to the Chinese. Very much worth reading: theatlantic.com Kaplan observes that China cannot yet fight a sea and air war with America and would therefore act asymmetrically: China has committed itself to significant military spending, but its navy and air force will not be able to match ours for some decades. The Chinese are therefore not going to do us the favor of engaging in conventional air and naval battles, like those fought in the Pacific during World War II. In a conflagration over Taiwan, one by the way which I don't think will occur, China's naval disadvantages would require it to go nuclear against US carrier groups. This would lead to an exchange which would lead, ultimately, to TEOTWEAWKI. Neither wants it but if it happens both China and the US will emerge diminished, second or third rate powers at best. Is obtaining by force or defending Taiwan worth this price to either? Not if both are rational. There are non-violent ways for the Chinese to get Taiwan, i.e., like Hong Kong was obtained, to which no one would object. I cannot believe the Chinese would be so abysmally stupid as to risk losing all they have achieved in the last few decades by trying a military takeover of Taiwan. Not going to happen, the risks are too huge and unnecessarily taken. Managing the coming Cold War between China and the US will be the defining issue of the first half of the 21st century. Don't underestimate the US's ability to do a magnificent job of it. Kaplan's article is a must-read in this regard. The issue is a whole lot more complex than the simple ability to strike a carrier group with a missile.