To: Les H who wrote (137939 ) 7/31/2008 10:42:22 AM From: Les H Respond to of 306849 State on track for 5th year of recession by Mark Sanchez | Business Review Western Michigan Thursday July 31, 2008, 8:00 AM Perhaps punctuating what many already believed, Comerica Inc.'s chief economist says Michigan is on track for a fifth straight year of economic recession as the auto industry's woes deepen. Dana Johnson projects the state domestic product to decline 1.5 percent in 2008, while the U.S. economy will grow by the same rate. "With somewhat more than half the year already on the books, it is pretty obvious that 2008 will be the fifth consecutive year of recession for Michigan," Johnson wrote in his third-quarter economic briefing released this week. "The clear prospect is that the state will continue to underperform the national economy over the balance of 2008." What hope there was for Michigan's economy this year evaporated with $4-per-gallon gasoline prices, which have eased somewhat in the last two weeks. Still, consumer reaction to the high gas prices depressed car sales, meaning the Big Three domestic automakers that were already bleeding market share are now "getting a considerably smaller share of a rapidly shrinking pie." As a result, domestic automakers that were nearing a return to profitability again are facing prolonged financial losses as they retool to make smaller cars and fewer light trucks and SUVs. They also are reducing the size of their white-collar work forces. "Thus, the headwind from the auto sector in Michigan is intensifying, and the ongoing downturn in that sector will ripple through the rest of the state's economy," Johnson wrote in his quarterly briefing. Michigan's unemployment rate stood at 8.5 percent in June, up by 1.4 percentage points from a year earlier. The unemployment rate for the first half of the year was 7.6 percent, versus 7.2 percent midway through 2006.mlive.com