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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (39787)	8/2/2008 7:17:43 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95622

Bob, Yes, it is very clear we are trying to find the bottom here, because at some point, orders will begin rising in order to meet the projected worldwide increase in revenue next year. You may remember the post a couple of weeks ago reporting on SEMI's projection for worldwide sales for 08, 09, and 10. Message 24797110 A [snip] from that post is as follows: <<The forecast indicates that, following six percent market growth in 2007, the equipment market will decline 20 percent in 2008, but will experience a rebound with annual growth of 13 percent and six percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively.>> From that post and the projections therein, the following table was posted of worldwide sales going back to 1999 and continuing forward to include the estimated revenue thru 2010. Message 24797138 The table in that post is repeated below: Now obviously, in order to meet the 13 percent increase in revenue for 09, orders will have to increase from the present depressed level fairly soon. At the moment however, the "market" is not looking much beyond the Sept quarter outlook. I thought I would look at the present estimates of the 17 stocks in the Group for the Dec quarter and compare those to the Sept quarter estimates. At the moment, the Sept estimates at the bottom line for the 14 stocks that have reported June earnings are 3.07. Those same stocks have Dec estimates of 3.81, or 0.74 upside compared to Sept. Now I expect a lot of changes in those estimates as time progresses, but the trend is clear. Earnings are expected to increase, although modestly, from Sept. So we have "down" into Sept and "up" into Dec. Maybe we do have a "bottom" in October, just like in 98 and 02?<g> If the revenue projections for 09 and 10 hold as published by SEMI, stocks prices should find a "bottom" relatively soon and start an upward trend. Don