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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (3221)	8/9/2008 10:43:04 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26251

Gold held up extremely well yesterday considering the surge in the Dollar and the continued decline in crude oil. I severely doubt that Gold will trade (even intraday) below $690. The credit crisis and the financial strain on the system is not going away anytime soon. The big decline in Silver yesterday is an omen for what will eventually take place in the Gold Market before a bottom is reached. The Mining stocks are still declining hard, which is not a good sign for the POG. As forecasted, $HUI is headed to the 300 level at least. A decisive break below the 285 area would signify the end of the Gold Bull. I say this because the August 16, 2007 low for $HUI was 284.85. So, if the Gold Bull is to remain intact, $HUI must bottom above its previous low. A tremendous scare below the 300 level looks inevitable here and a good area to cover short positions and attempt a long. Crude Oil is down about 25% from its highs; Gold is only down about 15%. Physical gold demand from India is down quite a bit this year in comparison to last year. I don't want to harp on that too much since Gold is primarily a currency. A 20% decline in the POG from its highs would be a mild decline. I doubt Gold will get away that easy. The equity market is clearly in bear market rally mode. More on this later.