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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38458)	8/11/2008 6:50:36 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218083

fresh from the HQ of neocon analytics - stratfor, regarding lessons learned at cost of blood, and for what, that one cannot bully mama russia? i would have thought folks knew that one already - and so the chicken clucks no more and the monkeys are awed Geopolitical Diary: Lessons Learned from Georgia August 11, 2008 \| 0151 GMT The war between Georgia and Russia appears to be drawing to a close. There were Russian air attacks on Georgia on Sunday and some fighting in South Ossetia, and the Russians sank a Georgian missile boat. But as the day ended the Russians declared themselves ready to make peace with Georgia, and U.N. officials said the Georgians were ready to complete the withdrawal of their forces from South Ossetia. At this point, the Russians have achieved what they wanted to achieve, quite apart from assuring South Ossetia’s autonomy. First, they have driven home the fact that in the end, they are the dominant power not only in the Caucasus but also around their entire periphery. Alliance with the United States or training with foreign advisers ultimately means little; it is not even clear what the United States or NATO would have been able to do if Georgia had been a member of the alliance. That lesson is not for the benefit of Georgia, but for Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, and even Poland and the Czech Republic. The Russians have made it clear that, at least at this moment in history, they can operate on their periphery effectively and therefore their neighbors should not be indifferent to Russian wishes. The second lesson was for the Americans and Europeans to consider. The Russians had asked that Kosovo not be granted independence. The Russians were prepared to accept autonomy but they did not want the map of Europe to be redrawn; they made it clear that once that starts, not only will it not end, but the Russians would feel free to redraw the map themselves. The Americans and Europeans went forward anyway, making the assumption that the Russians would have no choice but to live with that decision. The Russian response to the Georgian attack on South Ossetia drives home the point that the Russians are again a force to be reckoned with. There has been sharp rhetoric from American and European officials, but that rhetoric can’t be matched with military action. The Europeans are too militarily weak to have any options, and the Americans have quite enough on their plates without getting involved in a war in Georgia. In some ways the rhetoric makes the Russians look even stronger than they actually are. The intensity of the rhetoric contrasted with the paucity of action is striking. The Americans in particular have another problem. Iran is infinitely more important to them than Georgia, and they need Russian help in Iran. Specifically, they need the Russians not to sell the Iranians weapons. In particular, they do not want the Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles delivered to the Iranians. In addition, they want the Russians to join in possible sanctions against Iran. Russia has a number of ways to thwart U.S. policy not only in Iran, but also in Afghanistan and Syria. These are areas of fundamental concern to the United States, and confronting the Russians on Georgia is a risky business. The Russians can counter in ways that are extremely painful to the United States. There is talk that the Russians might want a new government in Georgia. That is probably so, but the Russians have already achieved their most important goals. They have made it clear to their neighbors that a relationship with the West does not provide security if Russia’s interests are threatened. They have made it clear to the West that ignoring Russian wishes carries a price. And finally, they have made it clear to everyone that the Russian military, which was in catastrophic shape five years ago, is sufficiently healed to carry out a complex combined-arms operation including land, air and naval components. Granted it was against a small country, but there were many ways in which the operation could have been bungled. It wasn’t. Russia is not a superpower, but it is certainly no longer a military cripple. Delivering that message, in the end, might have been the most important to Russia.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38458)	8/11/2008 6:54:49 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218083

<asking NATO to land troops in Tbilisi and other Georgian towns> Haim, are you serious?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (38458)	8/11/2008 7:31:42 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218083

Poti Harbor taken and Georgia is split in half it chnages the whole picture from political to looting. "will charge huge transit fees for everything passing trough this corridor" Limiting thre diameter of the Armenia-Iran pileline was a dead give away: Armenia, Iran Open Key Gas Pipeline March 19, 2007, ArmeniaLiberty.org, By Ruzanna Stepanian in Agarak - President Robert Kocharian and his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated on Monday a long-awaited pipeline that will allow Armenia to import natural gas from Iran and ease its strong dependence on Russian energy resources. Lighting a symbolic torch, the two leaders officially opened the first Armenian section of the pipeline during a ceremony held in Agarak, a small Armenian town on the Iranian border. The ceremony was delayed by four hours because rain and fog prevented a helicopter carrying Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials from crossing into Armenia. They had to arrive by car. "This is a historic event. We have turned a new page in Armenian-Iranian relations," Kocharian declared at an ensued joint news conference. Ahmadinejad likewise called the event a "big step" in the development of bilateral ties. "I am very happy and grateful to Almighty God for enabling us to open the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline and to provide a new service to the people of Armenia," he said. "I told my good friend [Kocharian] that we are very happy because he is happy, the government of Armenia is happy, and the people of Armenia are happy," he added. Work on the 40-kilometer section of the pipeline, connected to a 100-kilometer stretch built on Iranian territory, began in late 2005 and was financed by a $34 million loan provided by the Iranian government. The Armenian side is to repay it with supplies of electricity. The two governments agreed to build a third high-voltage transmission line connecting the power grids of the two neighboring nations for that purpose last year. Officials said Armenia will initially be able to receive only up to 400 million cubic meters of Iranian a year, or less than a third of its current gas imports from Russia. That capacity will rise to 2.3 billion cubic meters a year after the planned construction of the pipeline's second, much longer Armenian section. Yet even that volume will hardly allow Armenia to re-export Iranian gas to Georgia and other countries, something which seemed a real possibility several years ago when the pipeline's diameter was projected at 1,500 millimeters. The Armenian government reportedly agreed to cut it to just 710 millimeters under pressure from Russia which feared losing its status as the region's main gas supplier. Yerevan is also widely expected to grant Russia's state-run Gazprom monopoly ownership of the newly built pipeline as part of a complex 2006 deal that reinforced Moscow's grip on the Armenian energy sector. Some analysts wonder whether the pipeline will actually boost Armenia's energy security under these circumstances. Ahmadinejad and Kocharian, who made sure only journalists from Armenian and Iranian state televisions could ask them questions, did not comment on implications of the likely Russian control of the facility. The two leaders spoke instead about what they see as huge progress made in the development of Armenian-Iranian relations over the past decade. "The peoples of the two countries are determined to further develop their ties," said Ahmadinejad. "I believe that this [pipeline] project, which we are putting into practice, will further reinforce friendship and ties between our peoples." "As recently as ten years ago our energy systems were not connected to each other," argued Kocharian. "Now we are talking about constructing a third high-voltage line and signed today an agreement to build a hydro-electric plant on the river Arax [marking the Iranian-Armenian border.]" Kocharian gave no details of the multimillion-dollar energy project that has long been discussed by Yerevan and Tehran. Iran's Energy Minister Parviz Fattah announced last July that construction of the Arax plant will get underway "in early 2007."