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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/15/2008 9:19:01 AM
From: Provider	Respond to of 50085

Thanks for continuing to lay out FACTS. That is what is important, seeing what IS happening, not HOPING for something to happen. We have a tremendously complicated environment, and as you have pointed out so clearly, it is constantly changing. We must adapt to the changes or become road kill in the chaos. Again Thanks. Provider

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/15/2008 9:47:01 AM
From: re3	Respond to of 50085

<<<Something that everyone if missing? this has a soap opera feel to it, we're always to hang on for next week's episode... what is it that we are missing before we've actually missed it ?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/15/2008 9:52:48 AM
From: crdesign	Respond to of 50085

I'll give you a reco Slider. And it's not because your right or wrong (even though your mostly right.) It's because I enjoy reading your prose; you keep it short, sweet & make (some of us) think. & you do it for free. You've got a sea of 0.0's out there waiting to attack the missed calls of the 3.5-4.0's. That's probably why they will always be 0.0's... Thanks to folks like you & a select few others on this thread I learn more & more every day about the market. FWIW, This market game is my private folly. I got weapons that will sustain me & my heirs long into the future & they're far removed from the ST stock trading environment. The weapons are not guns or bombs. They're better know as talent, taste & knowledge; peppered with a unique ability to make people smile. Keep up the good writing, I hope you & the good folks on this thread have a good weekend. We're off to Longwood Gardens & Cape May. Tim PS. A very rich guy once told me to stay away from stocks he became wealthy beyond his wildest dreams trading bonds. Things that make you go hmmm.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/15/2008 10:58:26 AM
From: ecrire	Respond to of 50085

Interesting. but what's the conclusion? Watch the Dollar/Yen for resumption of the "carry trade". That should benefit stocks but why Gold?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/15/2008 11:40:23 AM
From: wsw1	Respond to of 50085

You've been calling the market action perfectly. Don't let anyone tell you you're crazy! You're doing a great service to the people who take heed of the message in your posts. There's so much knowledge gained in your posts. Please don't stop with them.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/15/2008 9:46:19 PM
From: mrpickles	Respond to of 50085

An anomaly. A discrepancy between price and risk. Something that everyone is ignoring? Something that everyone is forgetting? Something that everyone if missing? My guess is ethanol stocks. They get no love and corn yields are going to be huge this year. That will probably lead to good earnings surprises next time they report. Take a look at VSE, PEIX, AVR.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/15/2008 9:48:58 PM
From: jimss	Respond to of 50085

"Mr.Something" Are you referring to Comrade Putin?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/16/2008 8:04:28 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50085

Slider: You work is well worth the read. No doubt in my mind. You present your thoughts and ideas in a concise and interesting manner. You make your readers search the clues you drop and further examine the macro financial environment we find ourselves. You decode,after the facts are in,your pointed reasonings behind why such and such has occurred. All fine and good. With all that said. What you do not do is make predictions on where the road will inevitably lead us; "Is this it, is this the bottom." I believe you could easily provide your thesis on our financial future but for whatever reasonings you prefer to allow the reader to predict his/her own road maps. Clarity is often obscured behind words. What comes to mind is how one can spin the truth and twist ones perception. You do not do that,but many others do. What you do not do is clarify where we are headed. We live in a world of obscurity, half truths and spin masters which have a profound impact on our electorate and ourselves. Magicians could learn a few tricks simply by watching CNBC,Fed Officials and our elected politicians;if,that is,they we interested enough about these issues.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	8/18/2008 7:45:47 PM
From: 8bits	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50085

FWIW, Richard Russell now says deflation: Message 24857652

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (11165)	9/2/2008 7:30:51 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	13 Recommendations Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 50085

The Chart The Permabulls Don't Want You To See... Now ask yourself, WHY hasn't this chart been plastered all over the gold bug boards? That chart is TA 101. Yet it's being ignored, as if it doesn't exist. Why haven't the permabull pundits & gold bug gurus talked about that chart, or talked about "how" to protect your portfolio... if, or when, gold simply returns to it's longterm trendline? Last week I wrote about goldbugs looking at their gold positions as insurance -- instead of the one thing they needed to be insuring. The same thing applies to commodities in general, or anything else one is "portfolio weighted" to. If you are over-weighted to anything - that's what you need to be insuring, or hedging in a market like this. You insure exposure. Even insurance companies -- insure their insurance, because for them -- it's not insurance, it's their asset base, it's their exposure, and that's what they insure. And if you are over-weighted to gold, oil, or commodities here, that's not insurance, it's your asset base, and that is what you should be insuring. I'm still short half of our original position on the HUI 470 trading range turn. And I am buying weakness very selectively -- "as a hedge to that short" - and buying time via 2009 calls & 2010 LEAPS. I've set trailing stops on my shorts at HUI 380, as old support at HUI 370-400 for the HUI, may now become new resistance. I'm not worried about missing gold stocks going to HUI 450-470, because we've "been there & done that" innumerable times via "the trading range" trade. What I'm worried about is missing a potential HUI 700, or 1000, a year, or two from now vs. risking a fully weighted long- sided portfolio to capturing a bounce trade, into collapsing fundamentals. One thing I am not reading anywhere - for those who are portfolio weighted to gold, and who are not "short-term" active traders... is the trading strategy of not buying, or chasing weakness here, but rather waiting until gold, or gold stocks break out to new highs and buying that strength (on a portfolio weighted basis). (Remember my "little green circles chart? More on that later.) Are there flip/bounce trades to be made here? Sure. But, I'd be banking the profits - and taking only a portion of those profits and buying upside potential via calls in the majors, and "non-expiring" options via badly beaten down juniors and explorers. Is the dollar due for a correction, and oil for a bounce? Sure. But, that's a short-term trading event - not a portfolio weighting event. Sadly, your portfolio should have already been re-weighted. If you've followed my "trading range" trade... there's nothing to fight for here. This is a high risk:low reward environment, and as I mentioned in this post below that you may want to re-read one more time... Message 24849391 The fundamentals for gold -- have changed. -- The Fed has slowed the expansion of money supply. -- The Fed has ended it's rate cut campaign. -- The Dollar has held it's bottom, and is now rallying. -- The US and global economies are slowing. -- Commodites are correcting, and oil has finally collapsed. -- And the US is still experiencing a deflationary collapse in housing, and financial assets. Until the fundamentals change again (for the positive), we're going to establish a new trading range for gold & gold stocks, and once again, the danger to buying this dip for anything other than a short-term trade, is that former support at HUI 370-400 - once again becomes resistance. I'm buying very selectively here. And what I am buying is junior/explorers now priced as options (without expiration), and long dated calls and leaps in the majors -- buying time with highly levered upside. The danger here, is that commodities, and gold return to their longterm trendlines. And if they do, there's still a long way yet to go. Be careful out there... Don't let buy and hold turn into - buy and fold. S.O.T.B.