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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (9866)	8/22/2008 4:19:48 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

I think it possible John we are in the bull market of all time. This is the only kind of market that can present us with this type of stuff. Almost too crazy to even put in any kind of fundamental perspective. Yes this is the type of extraordinary time in the markets that is something like 1719-1720. My pretty standard answer, the past couple of years has been that a huge increase in inflation, which is concomitantly a huge debasement / depreciation of the currencies is what will bail the global markets out of this stupendous credit contraction/ deleveraging of credit instruments and credit markets. Obviously the commodity markets get overly exuberent, as they did in late May and June when the latest buck a day increase in crude oil is front page headlines on theDrudgerport, and network news *every single day* for 7 or 9 days running. That type of mass psychological extreme needs to be counterbalanced with these Texas sized declines of 40% in Natural Gas in 6 weeks, and 24.6% decline in the benchmarket WTIC (west texas crude). GG (GoldGroup) had it's own staggering decline of 44.7% from a high on July 15th of 55.62 to it's low of 29.08 on August 11th. what's interesting is that GG's low came on monday August 11th and it made a slightly higher low on Friday aug 15th when gold actually bottomed. Gold itself fell 21.4% from it's July 15th high of 989.60 to it's August 15th low of 777.70. As has been pointed out here on the thread earlier today. July 14th was a time turning point and that fit in with the turn in Gold. Crude put in its low on August 15th, while Natural Gas has been the laggard. I don't know exactly why I think this is a fairly significant intermediate turn bottom in crude and the precious metals etc. I've been thinking that when crude hit it's low at 111.50 that it would then move into a contracting triangle type formation where we would not move above the 147.9 level or below 111.50 for the balance of this year. Since the energy complex has fallen so far so fast, one would assume lower prices could develop over the coming month or two. Right now I'm thinking that this is not the case. I don't know if I am right on this thinking. anyway..... John