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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (9869)	8/23/2008 1:02:52 AM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 33421

John, I am out of pocket and don't have my normal stuff available. Prior to leaving I had leaned toward the idea of commodity strength lasting into may 2nd half of Sept. Nothing firm picked out though. The 30 year bond price and yield charts are interesting. It is conceivable that by early next year the price puts in a new all time high, or does a double top plus a bit. The yield has bounced off 40 three times recently. Will it bounce again or fall through? At some point your view about inflation is going to come true. We are getting ever closer. When the turn is finally made gold is not going to look backwards, for a long long time.

To: John Pitera who wrote (9869)	8/23/2008 12:29:40 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

My models have WTIC moving toward $99 over the next month or so, and eventually hitting $85/bbl by mid-November. We should be in a trading range from $85 to $100 from mid-November through the end of February. The lowest I think we'll see on oil is $80/bbl over the next year. Seasonal patterns and a 6-9 month economic recovery starting a little before mid 2009 suggest a spring low in WTIC and possibly a move to $110 by the end of 2009. Weather and politics permitting, I believe we've left $130+ oil behind. Most of that rise above $134 was due to a hedge fund blow-up and subsequent margin call liquidations that caused large short positions to be covered.