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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39286)	8/27/2008 4:30:55 AM
From: RJA_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218033

>>the crux of all comes down to energy availability and pricing, meaning quality of life True. Which is also a major ingredient in availability of food. >>- the key, imo, is solar; Certainly a key if not the key. Also pebble reactors, wind... and methods to store solar overnight... methods to produce store and distribute cheap hydrogen for vehicles, or much better battery technology. >>- if solar succeeds, then russia neutered and saudi arabia tamed, and israel behaving >>- but solar success depends on brains and economics and scale of market Yup. >>- solar success, imo, depends on usa research, and china manufacturing, which - depends on aggregate officialdoms' policies, and - continued globalization of solar arena, and, of course - depends on the nature and collective interest to solve real problems, how fast, by whatever means, funded with the bubble to dwarf on bubbles past put together Absolutely. >>- should usa turn inward and witchhunt its ethnic chinese scientists and engineers, they are then welcome to return to the motherland Why should this be so? We all need solutions + clear thinking. Solutions will be rewarded. All else is crazy and self defeating. >>- should usa insist on viewing china as a strategic enemy, then witchhunt inevitable Is china a strategic enemy? It finances US. If we can team on solar, why not as strategic partner? Essentially, what has been happening has been a strategic partnership of sorts... altho has been relatively better for china. China develops industry, provides financing, US provides market. However, ultimately trade must balance somehow. However, the energy problem must be solved or we are all ultimately f**ked. >>big issues after dawning of solar: >>- global areas of moslem faith will either return to economic poverty, or achieve breakthrough by combination of innate talent and external help from willing sources of wisdom Willingness to change necessary. Means fundamentalism must be modified or eliminated. Otherwise they are still trouble. Deserts make great sites for solar farms tho... but a little far from demand. >>- europe can expect to be swamped by folks of moslem faith, and must make them happy, or badness going forward Traditionally, what happens is immigrants adopt to the prevailing culture, rather than the other way around. Otherwise the immigration becomes more in the way of a takeover. Are you suggesting thats what must or should happen in Europe? >>- america can expect continuing skewing of population via iron law of demographics, [not sure what you mean here, please explain...] and deal with troubles to do with returning to natural size per increased population of different flavor and continuing productivity squeezes per global competition Agree. >> - one person one vote per india model will not be able to cut it on a level playing field Not sure what you mean by this. One person one vote works if folks are educated and intelligent. And if they are not, then they are easily manipulated... and many times, (but not always), who spends the most wins... which can make a rather corrupt and slanted system... which could be one view of the present. That first "if" kind of important. We don't seem to educate well here for civic involvement or entrepreneurship. Both are more necessary than ever. >>- japan and russia will gravitate towards point of demographic collapse Russia is currently involved in youth breeding encouragement program, ala Hitler youth. It may have an impact. >>- brazil's ethnol will cease to have a future, for burning fuel is just that, the burning of precious oxygen, and will stop naturally, one way or another >>recommendation: - accumulate gold - relocate to sunny place - short puts on selected but unrecognized solar - hold energy just in case - hoard platinum Colorado great place for solar. More sun than most places in US... Still, price not right yet. We are on the cusp of great change. May the force be with us all... <g!>

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39286)	8/27/2008 7:23:42 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218033

you grasped the SIZE SCALE. Now for the TIME SCALE. It will take a while for the solar energy abracadabra to take hold and then after that to start displacing traditional applications. Time to displace entrenched solutions depends on two issues: 1) Cost of the solar application 2) Reaction of the competition The competition will surely react. Anywhere you'll put a solar application you need a back up of traditional if down time is critical. So there will be a push for small diesel generators and the existing technology gets a life extension. Before -I'd say until 15 years ago- a new solution was easy to introduce because the decision makers were engineers. Nowadays they are business people. In this era of lean accounting it is an uphill battle to prove that a new solution is better than the existing ones. There is a lot of convincing hat the proponents of solar have to do. Do not forget the integration of the package. Solar must be implemented turnkey and engineers, architects are very lazy people. Now for the ethanol displacement part: Energy is a matrix of several sources depending on the application. Energy for mobile applications so far has been mainly gasoline, Diesel, natural gas and avgas for aviation. After 1973-79 oil shock entered Natural Gas and ethanol. Now we are adding bio-diesel Energy for fixed applications: used hydropower, coal, nuclear and oil. After 1973-79 oil shock it started farming out coal, adding Natural Gas and oil was removed. Fringe energy kept on the sidelines: Wind, solar (mostly derived from space applications, Fuel cells Electric cars, hybrid cars. In the mean time technology progressed. Cellular added a couple of billion subscribers all over the world, and there was no push to for using solar applications. (I had installed solar powered solar in 1987. Between Sokoto Nigeria and Birni Konni in Niger Republique) Only now that Diesel costs and competitive pressure piled up is that it shows a promise. How exactly solar would compete with ethanol?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39286)	8/27/2008 8:57:34 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 218033

- if solar succeeds, then russia neutered and saudi arabia tamed, what type of solar you envision? the sun is radiating around 1.3+KW per square meter. Around the equator you can get easy an average of close to 1 KW per square meter. Today most commercial systems do not even convert at 10% efficiency - so you need a surrogate source of energy and the best is wind and sea who also store solar energy. Put a rizhome or seed into the ground and you have close to 5% efficiency Silicon is not the ideal material for PV cells and solar concentrators are expensive Any new ideas up your sleeve?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39286)	8/27/2008 10:11:20 AM
From: microhoogle!	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218033

I suspect Solar will get a strong foothold in densely populated countries like China, India and other emerging nations with abundant sunshine. India should be diving into it big time and I am not sure if they are doing much

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39286)	8/27/2008 2:12:09 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218033

Chinese skyscraper builders to put up equivalent of 10 New Yorks, says Rio Tinto· Research suggests 50,000 towers over next 20 years · Demand for steel helps boost miner's profits 55% Rio Tinto yesterday shrugged off talk of an impending collapse in the commodities market, pointing to recent research that suggested China will build up to 50,000 skyscrapers in the next 20 years, the equivalent of 10 New Yorks, creating sustained long-term demand for steel and other raw materials. The mining group reported half-year profits of $5.5bn (£3bn), a 55% increase on the same period a year earlier, providing the company with ammunition in its battle to see off a hostile bid by BHP Billiton valued at about £70bn. Rio's chairman, Paul Skinner, said the board's view was unchanged since BHP increased its bid in February. "The offer on the table is still short of what we would consider full value for Rio Tinto and its prospects, and these results emphasise that," he said. "We are demonstrating what Rio Tinto is really capable of." Metal prices have come off their highs after five years of strong growth, but Skinner said the credit crunch had had only a "modest" impact on Rio's markets. The company said that North America and Europe were becoming decreasingly relevant to the setting of metals prices, as demand is driven by China, India and other emerging markets - Chinese imports of iron ore are running 20% ahead of the same point last year. In the first half of the year, Rio lifted prices of iron ore by an average 86% compared with 2007, even as economies in North America and Europe were weakening. The average copper price charged by Rio in the first half was 20% higher than last year, gold was 38% higher and aluminium prices were up 2%. The company said 2009 was likely to be the sixth successive year of higher prices. Profits were also boosted by the company's $38.7bn acquisition of aluminium producer Alcan last year, though the brokerage Numis estimated that it accounted for only 5% of the gain in earnings. Some analysts had been forecasting a dip in Chinese investment after the Olympics, but Rio is predicting that there will be a post-games boom. The company cited research from McKinsey, the management consultancy, which said the scale and pace of urbanisation would continue at an unprecedented rate. By 2025, the report predicts that China will have 221 cities with more than a million inhabitants, compared with 35 in Europe today. As well as the need for huge spending on infrastructure, McKinsey projects that China will build between 20,000 and 50,000 skyscrapers, many of them in less developed interior provinces far from Beijing and Shanghai. The company's revenue from China in the first half more than doubled on the previous year, from $2.4bn to $4.9bn. Group revenue topped $30bn. "There is no question that we are living in an era of unprecedented demand for minerals and metals," said Rio's chief executive, Tom Albanese. The BHP offer is conditional on it gaining regulatory approval. A merger has already been cleared by Washington, Europe gives its verdict in December and Australian regulators are to rule in October. If it receives clearance, BHP will then send out the offer document and the bid will go live. Another obstacle was thrown in the path of BHP's bid over the weekend when the Australian government gave its approval to the acquisition of a 12% stake in Rio's London shares by the Chinese state-owned company Chinalco.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39286)	8/27/2008 5:59:06 PM
From: Webster Groves	Respond to of 218033

Solar energy, yes or no, is a political question. Technology is up to the task with less than perfect efficiency. The problem is that a reliance on solar energy does not guarantee the political existence of the DOD. Seeking and "protecting" our fossil fuel and its distribution to us, however, does provide a rationale for the military. Industry will go where the money is, so they can be bought to support solar. Given the current political situation in the US, I see no evidence that solar or nuclear will be embraced. The rest of the world, will march in step with economics, and push the solar button. wg