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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (40128)	9/11/2008 10:11:42 AM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

Short term, I agree G. Go with the chart. However.... Its starting to smell like Sept 1998. Semi stocks where already washed out (similar to today) and they kept going down. And down hard. Oct 1998 was one of the prime buying opps in this sector. Will we get a 10 year redux? Sure starting to look that way to this observer!! jmo TO

To: Gottfried who wrote (40128)	9/11/2008 12:30:29 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95617

Gottfried, With the WFR chart in a "free fall" some really bad news might be expected, but so far, while there is some "softness" in demand from semiconductor applications customers as described in the article below, the update by WFR looked pretty good. <<ST. PETERS, Mo., Sept. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. today released its previously scheduled update for the third quarter of 2008 which ends on September 30. As part of this release, the company has provided an update to the silane and polysilicon output charts for its Pasadena, Texas facility, which were originally provided as part of the company's second quarter earnings release on July 23, 2008. The charts have been updated to include production rates through September 1. "The attached charts indicate that the polysilicon production rates at our Pasadena facility have been at levels that, combined with the strength of demand from solar applications customers, could allow us to achieve results in the upper half of our targeted financial range," said Nabeel Gareeb, MEMC's chief executive officer. "However, there is increased softness in demand from semiconductor applications customers, primarily due to their inventory reduction initiatives. In addition, there continues to be the potential for unanticipated events to occur, which could affect our polysilicon production output, as we have experienced over the past year. These elements warrant a continued degree of caution in our outlook given the amount of time left in the quarter. As a result, we have not changed our previous targets for revenue of $560-$620 million and gross margin of 54%-55%. Operating expenses are targeted to be approximately $43 million, compared to the prior target of approximately $41 million, primarily due to one-time, non-cash severance related expenses. These revenue targets would represent growth of 5%-17% versus the previous quarter, and 18%-30% versus the year-ago quarter. The gross margin targets would represent expansion of up to 180 basis points versus the previous quarter and up to 450 basis points versus the year-ago quarter." "We are also pleased to announce that all deposits due from Conergy and Tainergy for 2008 have been received. Consequently, MEMC has commenced wafer deliveries to both customers," concluded Gareeb.>> itnewsonline.com In addition, there are a couple of new articles just posted today that are rather interesting. marketintelligencecenter.com money.cnn.com As I write this note, WFR is trading down over 6 percent, under $32 per share.