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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (40129)	9/11/2008 10:32:55 AM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

I am working on my next newsletter where I say: "Other than the 3.9% GDP growth for the second quarter, the economic numbers being reported now are terrible. Large lending banks have failed and housing prices continue to fall. The Federal Reserve essentially nationalized Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, government sponsored enterprises that currently account for about 80% of new mortgages. Continuing unemployment claims are at a five year low and the economy has not created net non-farm jobs since late 2007. ECRI accurately predicted this economic malaise early in the year when they said the stimulus package was too late to prevent a recession. GDP growth, greatly aided by the stimulus package, may say we are not in a recession but don’t tell that to anyone of the 6.1% of workers looking for a job. The only good one can draw out of this mess is historically these slow times have been exceptional times to invest in stocks. Large returns are possible if you can plug your nose and handle the downside volatility before the economy eventually recovers and stock prices soar again." I think it is one of those times you buy something then plug your nose and be ready to buy more of something else again if the market continues lower. In 1998, I remember well buying LRCX at about $4 and seeing it tumble all the way to under $3 before reversing. That felt like crap as I put a decent amount of my taxable free cash into it and I had just left the cash cow job at HP to live off my portfolio and write about investing. I added some more LRCX as it fell but mid 3's at the time for that buy was still well above the bottom. Today buying at $3, $4 or even $10 looks good compared to what the market has done. Is low $30s the bottom now? I wish the heck I knew... but I've added to my shares just as I took profits below the actual top, but well above the current price. It is interesting to note the S&P500 has gone essentially nowhere since 1/1/99 yet I've managed to generate enough from taking profits when it is up and buying back when it is down to live off and grow my own portfolio. Now my writing is generating income (newsletter and web pages) so it is easier for me to stomach the downturns (2002 was very painful) but I think the old adage of "buy when there is blood in the streets" still applies. If you don't think Lehman, Freddie, Fannie, Wachovia, WaMu, Bear, etc. shareholders have let out enough blood... you have to be looking for Armageddon where gold in a mattress is your safe bet.