Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (39808)	9/11/2008 9:28:22 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218065

would not wish korean parents on any one, truly in hk we see all sorts, and as far as parenting go, koreans and hk locals come near the bottom, in my book, for they destroy potential in more ways than build, i fear then again, what ever one does to raise one's own, must prepare them to dine on the korean/hk parented kids, or be sashimi-ed in any case, this just in in-tray, per GREED & fear · The Fannie/Freddie news may possibly reduce the growth scare for now. But more of a growth scare is inevitably coming, both in America and the rest of the world, which will ultimately climax in a growth panic and a resulting more coordinated policy response. · The American situation increasingly resembles Japan in the 1990s. For Hank the hunk's policy response may have delayed a precipitous decline. But it also prevents a V-shape recovery. Rather, the American economy is looking increasingly L-shaped. · The dollar is in the midst of a powerful counter-trend rally, which is expected for now to continue. But in the long-term, GREED & fear remains as bearish as ever on the US dollar and on the US dollar paper standard. Investors should not give up on gold. Gold will start to rally again in US dollar terms when the markets start to discount renewed Fed easing, which will only happen after more of a growth scare. · Korea is not a screaming buy but nor is it a disaster story. GREED & fear has been underweight Korea this year due to its exposure to cyclical stocks and the risk of redemptions from the domestic instalment funds. The cyclical stocks will continue to underperform severely if the inflation scare of the first six months of this year continues to be replaced by a growth scare culminating in a growth panic. · Domestic investors have so far proved remarkably resilient in terms of the lack of outflows from the instalment funds. GREED & fear's guess is that the Korean instalment-fund phenomenon will survive the current bearish mood in global equities. But there is going to be a redemption scare before the current downturn is over. · The Korean banking sector has so far proved relatively defensive this year. But it lacks an exciting growth catalyst. The loan-deposit ratio and the household debt-to-income ratio remain worryingly high relative to the rest of Asia. While the continuing high loan growth increases the risk of rising NPLs from the current low levels of 0.7% for the system at large. · One area where banks are definitely starting to see problems in their SME loan portfolios is lending to the construction sector and related lending to the property sector. Korea's residential property sector is at present characterised by excess supply and falling prices. · Full deregulation of the property sector in Korea will mostly likely come when the residential property market is more distressed and people are urging more government action to support it. But this may not happen until 2009. Still, the government has already moved to deregulate in the provinces. · GREED & fear views the concerns about the recent steep decline in the won as overplayed, most particularly given the view here that the oil-led commodity complex has peaked and that oil will continue to head lower. · Another likely development in Korea next year, assuming the global economy continues to weaken, will be an infrastructure stimulus. This will be a positive for domestic orientated construction companies who will also be long-term beneficiaries from the looming consolidation in the sector. · GREED & fear is going to remove Hyundai Development from the Asia ex-Japan absolute-return portfolio because full-scale deregulation of residential property likely only comes after more bad news. This stock will be replaced by Samsung Electronics. · GREED & fear remains of the view that a collapse of the North Korean regime would represent a potentially hugely bullish growth catalyst for the Korean economy most particularly if, as GREED & fear would expect, America and Japan helped fund unification. · China policy should already have moved to a more easing bias. GREED & fear has always assumed that it would be one place this year where it would be easy to kick start the animal spirits, given the effervescent nature of the place. But if policy makers wait too long they risk real damage being done.